Sunday Line Moves and Free Picks for Mar. 12th

March 12, 2017

The NCAA tournament bids will be coming out shortly, but before they do we have some important line moves to attend to. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (17-4-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

CBB – (887) TROY vs. (888) TEXAS STATE 2:00 ET  ESPN2

The Sun Belt Conference or as their hash tag has said all week #funbelt, has the most unusual final, with No.6 Troy facing No.4 Texas State for this league’s lone NCAA bid. Those betting basketball are lowing the total, down from 136 to 131. Both has been doing a very good job defensively recently, which is certainly partly why they are here. Troy has held last five foes to 64.6 PPG and Texas State has limited the opposition to only 59.3 PPG in their past three outings. The teams split the total in two previous matchups, however, as good as the defenses have been, the offenses have also been cooking and scoring off turnovers. I’ll lean towards higher score at this number.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CBB – (891) CINCINNATI vs. (892) SMU 3:15 ET  ESPN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Both previous matchups were defensive struggles, though the first contest only reached 130 points that ended up going against a closing total of 126.5. The majority of the sharper action is on another low scoring affair, dumped from 129.5 to 127. These two AAC squads really get after it defensively and fatigue on long-range shooting could be a factor. I’ll side with this lower number.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

NBA – (879) PORTLAND at (880) PHOENIX 9:30 ET  KGW, FSAZ

Portland blew a 21-point lead at home and lost in OT to Washington, while Phoenix had its fourth buzzer beater of the season in Dallas last night. With both clubs having to travel to the desert this evening, the total has been sent south from 232 to 228.5. I will agree with the sportsbooks adjustment and here is why. The Suns are 4-2 and 5-1 ATS in their last half dozen encounters and they have held five of those opponents to 42 percent or less shooting. Though both teams have some strong OVER tendencies, when looking closer, they final scores average 222 or less points over 10 to 25 games.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NHL – (51) N.Y. RANGERS at (52) DETROIT 7:05 ET  NBCSN

Despite the loss of  goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who will miss two to three weeks with a muscle strain in his hip, the New York Rangers are a rising road favorite from -120 to -135 on the money line. The Blueshirts are fabulous on the road at 24-9 SU and Detroit continues to have home woes at 13-19 SU and are all but assured to miss Stanley Cup playoffs for first time in over a quarter century. The Rangers a sharp 11-2 in traveling sweaters after two Over’s.

Betting Trend – 75% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 55-67-1 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 27-38-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 82-104-2 ATS

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