Quite a few line moves in the NBA for tonight, including a side and total on a key contest. Memphis went from an underdog to a favorite over Denver with Zach Randolph now probable and though the Washington Capitals have not announced any lineup changes I am aware of, they are now road underdogs at Philadelphia tonight. We also have total move to talk about in Vegas16 finale. Also Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on nice 59-48 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (505) L.A. CLIPPERS at (506) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET PRIME, FSNO
The Clippers have won three in a row, covered their last two and have been beefed up from -4.5 to -6 at Minnesota. Off the top, of some concern in this corner about backing L.A. is they are 1-5 ATS in last six away contests and what their focus would be since they are in revenge spot at Oklahoma City tomorrow night. Los Angeles has taken their past four trips into the Twin Cities (2-1-1 ATS), but they are 12-21 ATS after beating the spread. The T-Wolves are 8-4 ATS in their last 12, but have many negative others numbers, thus I would pass or go very small on the home dog.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Minnesota
NBA – (507) PHOENIX at (508) MILWAUKEE 8:05 ET FSAZ, FSWI
In Brew Town, defense is not expected to be a priority, with the total up two points to 211.5. Phoenix has permitted 109.8 points a game in their last five, however, Milwaukee offsets that by scoring more than 96 points once in their last seven outings. In theory, you can make a case for the Over, with the Bucks 17-7 OVER off a loss by 10 or more points, but the average total score arrives at 205.8 PPG, leaving this handicapper to lean with the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (513) GOLDEN STATE at (514) UTAH 9:05 ET CSBA, ROOT-RM+ (side and total)
It is not often where Golden State is not expected to dictate the flow of a game, yet this is what we have tonight and the total has sunk from 205 to 202.5. Utah is 14-4 UNDER after a win by 20 or more points the last three seasons and 22-11 UNDER after two or more victories. Nevertheless, in the last three meetings, the total has gone OVER in each instance. With this line movement, the Jazz have slipped from +5.5 point home underdog to +4. Utah comes into this conflict 32-16 ATS after connecting on 12 or more three-pointers, yet it should note they are 5-15 ATS at home when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Over and 69% on Golden State
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, lean Utah
CBB – (521) OLD DOMINION vs. (522) OAKLAND U. 10:00 ET CBSSN
Bettors are counting on Old Dominion to dictate the pace and lowered the total from 147 to 145. From a coaching perspective, this really turns into a battle of wills, each trying to impose theirs on the other. As we are aware, it is easier to slow the pace than quicken it when you have opposites attract like for this first-ever Vegas16 championship. This is another very difficult selection, but all three sets of my numbers have this right around 150 for a total and I will follow the digits.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 48-54
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 32-27-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 81-78-1