Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for May 4th

May 4, 2016

With a big slate of afternoon MLB games, our attention is focused on night action for line moves. We did however notice the Reds went from underdogs to favorites. Plus, Colorado had become a rising road fave, with Seattle going the opposite direction at Oakland. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	NBA – (513) ATLANTA at (514) CLEVELAND  8:05 ET  TNT

Atlanta has averaged 93 points per game in last four games at Cleveland, which caught bettors attention and they have lowered Game 2 total in this series from 199 to 197.5. The Cavaliers only seemed to play in spurts and actually trailed in the fourth quarter to the Hawks in opener, however, I could see a little more energy tonight in wanting to build 2-0 lead. With Cleveland 16-5 OVER after a home victory, I can see this occurring.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (969) TEXAS at (970) TORONTO  7:05 ET  FSSW, RSN1

Based on several factors, the total on last year’s postseason matchup going up from 8.5 to 9 does not add up. Starters Colby Lewis (2-0, 3.19 ERA) and Aaron Sanchez (2-1, 2.59) have both been effective and the two offenses have combined for seven runs after two tilts. However, Lewis is19-6 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 since last year and he has a lifetime ERA over seven against the Blue Jays. My preference with the adjusted total is continued lower scoring and Toronto is 9-1 UNDER after a win this season and Sanchez is 9-0 UNDER if he’s off a victory.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (979) L.A. DODGERS at (980) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET  SNLA, SUN

For a second day in a row this interleague contest is attracting attention. Yesterday, Tampa Bay was a growing favorite and lost. The pregame circumstances are exactly the same with the Rays up from -145 to -160 or higher, depending on the sportsbook. The Dodgers biggest worry is starter Alex Wood (1-2, 4.82), who has been abysmal in three road starts, posting an 0-2 record and 8.36 ERA with eight walks over 14 innings. Tampa’s Drew Smyly (1-3, 2.60) has been much more reliable and over his past four starts owns a 1.61 ERA with 36 strikeouts over 28 innings. The Rays appear to be the play, but my enthusiasm is tempered with Tampa Bay 0-10 after two straight losses by four runs or more since 2014.

Betting Trend – 60% backing L.A. Dodgers

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tampa Bay

NHL – (25) WASHINGTON at (26) PITTSBURGH  8:05 ET  NBCSN

On the original line for Game 4 of this series when it was released, Pittsburgh was -125 and it was still not known if defenseman Kris Letang was going to be suspended. It was expected he would be for hit and was the next day. With the combination of the Penguins top defender out and a couple of other blue-liners hurt and Washington now the more desperate squad, the Capitals are now -120 road favorites and they are 14-3 having lost two of three.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 79-84-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 57-46-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 135-128-2

 

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