With a little schedule change this week, line moves will be here tomorrow. Today we have three MLB games to breakdown, along with some series betting in baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (75-57 of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (905) L.A. DODGERS at (906) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET SNLA, SNY
With Alex Wood scratched due to a sore triceps, Julio Urias will be promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma City and become the first 19-year-old pitcher since Felix Hernandez in 2005 to start an MLB game. He’ll be the youngest Dodger hurler since another Mexican left-handed phenom, Fernando Valenzuela, made his debut at age 19 in September 1980. With L.A. having won four straight, bettors are buying into the hype even against the Mets Jacob deGrom (3-1, 3.07 ERA) and have dropped the Dodgers from +140 to +110 or lower. For my cash, a lot of value on New York here and like the fact deGrom and teammates are 14-4 when the money line is -100 to -150.
Betting Trend – 92% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Mets win
MLB – (923) HOUSTON at (924) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET ROOT-SW, FSW
Though neither Mike Fiers (3-2, 4.35) nor Matt Shoemaker (2-5, 6.81) have made anyone think of them as frontline hurlers, the total on this AL West tilt has changed dramatically, tumbling from 8.5 to. 7.5. Both pitchers have show better in recent outings and it is not like either offense is exactly dynamic. However, this sure seems like overreaction and with Houston a -115 road favorite, they are 8-1 OVER as an away fave of -110 or higher this season. Plus, the Halos off 15-9 loss at Texas on Wednesday are 15-4 OVER at home after a game with a combined score of 20 runs or more.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over
MLB – (925) DETROIT at (926) OAKLAND 10:05 ET FSD, CSN-CA
All things considered, I think we can gloss over the fact Detroit is up 30 cents to -145 favorite at Oakland because everyone is in love with Michael Fulmer (3-1, 5.13) over the A’s Sean Manaea (1-2, 7.62). It has a lot more to do with the Tigers on 8-2 runoff, compared to the Athletics being losers of six or seven. This will not be among my best bets today, but realize the A’s are 4-11 at home against right-handed starters this season.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 92-101-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 76-61-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 171-155-2
MLB - PITTSBURGH (+115) at TEXAS (-135) – Series Betting
The Rangers at this price would appear to be a bargain, since they are expected to be favored in all three games this holiday weekend. Cole Hamels goes on Friday and Yu Darvish makes his anticipated debut on Saturday. Sunday should have Francisco Liriano against Martin Perez in a solid matchup. Both clubs are in good form, but I’ll lean with the home team.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Texas at -135
MLB – BOSTON (-110) at TORONTO (-110) – Series Betting
It is only Memorial Day weekend, but Toronto would sure like to start cutting into deficit against front-running Boston in the AL East. The Blue Jays are favored in the opener with Aaron Sanchez, but the Red Sox Joe Kelly has thrown dramatically better of late and Toronto is 0-7 at home when the money line is +125 to -125. The middle contest also has intrigue with Rick Porcello taking on Marcus Stroman. The finale favors the BoSox with David Price versus R.A. Dickey. With the Boston offense that much stronger thus far, they earn my interest in the first two more competitive contests and they win the series.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Boston at -110