It is our weekend edition of line moves and we have a couple of late Friday games to review, plus a Sunday total in the NBA. Also, our look at MLB series betting going into the weekend with previews. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (65-52) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
MLB – (961) CHIC. CUBS at (962) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET WGN, KNTV
The two preseason betting favorites in win the NL go toe to toe in the Bay Area and the wagering attention is on the total, with Jake Arrieta (7-0, 1.29 ERA) facing Jake Peavy (1-4, 7.43). The total has crept up from 6.5 to 7 and one would assume this happened because Peavy has not been very good and Arrieta has continued other worldly performances. Generally agree, though the Cubs offense has finally been contained of late with nine runs in past four contests. Nonetheless, hard to ignore Arrieta is 16-6 UNDER when the total is 7 or less since last season and San Francisco is 7-0 UNDER after allowing four runs or less in six straight games this year.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (977) BALTIMORE at (978) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:5 ET MASN2, FSW
With a dormant offense all season, the Angels looked like they were headed to oblivion with a bloated payroll to boot. But with Mike Trout finding his stroke and others following, the Halos are 6-1 in last seven and have averaged 6.0 runs a contest. The club from Orange County was sent out at -140, but not everyone has the faith the Halos will continue and they have been scaled back to -125. The Angels would appear to have the pitching edge with Hector Santiago (3-2, 3.42) vs. Mike Wright (2-3, 5.20) and they are 16-3 after scoring seven runs or more two straight games the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Baltimore
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A.
NBA – Sunday (711) GOLDEN STATE at (712) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:00 ET TNT
We are looking at this on Friday afternoon, thus, more changes could be coming, with the early action on Game 3 of West Finals on the total, up from 219 to 220.5. One has to assume the rest will help both teams and they will be attacking the basket from near and far. Though these clubs have played three straight Under’s, those were in NorCal and the past two battles in Oklahoma City were easy Over’s. Difficult to imagine either team not reaching 110 points in this one.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over (at 220.5)
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 89-97-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 69-60-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 161-150-2
MLB – WASHINGTON (-110) at MIAMI (-110) – Series Betting
These NL East rivals just split four games in Washington last weekend and do battle again in south Florida. The Nationals open the series as favorites with Tanner Roark the starter, but he was blasted for seven runs against Miami last week and will have to regroup quickly against club that he’s 2-6 against. The Marlins are middle game favorite with Jose Hernandez, with the Nats the oddsmakers pick in series finale with Max Scherzer. It appears the Game 1 winner could take the series and with Washington’s offense a bit stronger at the moment with better bullpen, let’s lean that way.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Washington at -110
MLB - CLEVELAND (+100) at BOSTON (-120) – Series Betting
Cleveland took the Ohio state championship with ease in sweeping Cincinnati 4-0 and will look to stay hot versus another squad who also has ‘red’ in there nickname. The lid-lifter features two pitchers who have turned into underachievers in Corey Kluber and Clay Buchholz. The Indians are actually favored to start the series, but an OVER might be safest wager. Trevor Bauer and Joe Kelly might be another tight one, with Bauer slightly more reliable thus far in 2016. Rick Porcello climbs the hill in Game 3 against Danny Salazar, with the Tribe’s right-hander really coming on. Both offenses have been on overdrive, but like Cleveland to have the edge.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Cleveland at +100
MLB - KANSAS CITY (+110) at CHIC. WHITE SOX (-130) – Series Betting
Good situation for Chicago to create some distance with the World Series champs. Jose Quintana is favored to get things rolling for the White Sox on Friday, though he and the Pale Hose are combined 5-13 lifetime. The middle game is a rare Saturday afternoon on the South Side with Danny Duffy matching tosses with Miguel Gonzalez. Sunday could be another close one with Yordano Ventura against Carlos Rodon. Though Kansas City has won 14 of 20 at The Cell, they have dumped 12 of 15 on the road of late.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Chicago at -130