The opening of the NBA East Finals has hoops bettors taking a close look at the total, which makes our list for line moves. We also have three other MLB games, but are ignoring big favorites in the Pirates, Cubs, Indians and Dodgers, whose numbers continue to swell. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (953) TORONTO at (954) CLEVELAND 8:35 ET ESPN
The general consensus before the NBA Playoffs started was the Eastern Conference might as well be called the Cleveland Invitational. That is how it has worked out to this juncture. Though two of the three meetings resulted in OVER’s during the regular season, the thinking among basketball bettors is the last game on Feb.26th might be more indicative of how the scoring will start in this series. The total on that date was 196 and the Game 1 figure has slipped from 202.5 to 201. This is the Cavaliers first contest in nine days and they could be rusty, while Toronto could be tired after a pair of seven-game series.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
MLB – (909) COLORADO at (910) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET ROOT-RM, FSMW
After sweeping the Mets, Colorado should arrive under The Arch downright giddy, above .500 (19-18) and owning a winning road record at 10-6. Yet it appears Jaime Garcia (3-2, 2.58 ERA) and the Cardinals are going to stymie the Rockies offense in some manner with the total drooping from 7.5 to 7. Garcia does not have great history against the Rocks with an 8.76 ERA in five career starts, nonetheless, when the total is at 7.5 or less at Busch, he is 11-1 UNDER the last couple seasons. While this seems really low, Colorado is 17-5 UNDER after a one run win since last year.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
MLB – (919) HOUSTON at (920) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET ROOT-SW, WPWR
Dallas Keuchel’s (2-5, 5.58) season has mirrored how Houston has played, not very good. The reigning Cy Young winner has been wretched in his past five starts with a 0-4 record and 7.98 ERA, as opposing batters are tuning him up for .355 batting average. The Astros were sent out as -115 road favorites and have been swung around to +100 underdogs. It is easy to make this call with the ‘Stros 5-14 as visitors and the White Sox having the second-best record in the AL. What makes this a dicey choice is struggling Carlos Rodon (1-4, 4.99) has 6.75 ERA in his past four starts, yet Houston is 1-6 versus left-handers scoring 3.0 runs game.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
MLB – (927) N.Y. YANKEES at (928) ARIZONA 9:40 ET YES, FSAZ
Zack Greinke (3-3, 5.26) has not come close to being the pitcher Arizona thought they signed in the offseason. This has been especially true at Chase Field where he has 7.28 home ERA, allowing 24 runs, which is already five more than he conceded at Dodger Stadium all last year. A strong ‘tell’ of the situation is even against a laboring Michael Pineda (1-4, 6.28) for the Yankees, the D-Backs have slithered from -140 to -120 or under favorites. The best news for the Snakes may be coming from its offense, which is 19-6 versus a starting pitcher who gives up one or more homers a start since last season.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 87-95-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 65-55-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 155-143-2