Monday bettors are satisfied with numbers on the NBA and NHL, thus today’s line moves end up being on the diamonds. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (55-45 of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (953) MIAMI at (954) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSFL, CSP
Remember in the spring when the thought was other than the Mets and Nationals, the NL East was going to be easy pickings? While Miami’s and Philadelphia’s long term projections are not good based on a series of team numbers, in the middle of May both are playing well and above .500. The Phillies have won six of seven at home and opened as a Pick against the Marlins, but have been raised to +125 home underdogs. Miami has the better offense (4.2 RPG vs. 3.3) and is 12-7 on the road this season. I do not really like this game, but if Philly keeps it close, they have a chance (14-3 in one run games), thus, I will lean that direction.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia
MLB – (955) BOSTON at (956) KANSAS CITY 7:05 ET ESPN
Boston hated to leave Fenway, after ridiculous homestand in which they averaged over 10 runs a game in assembling 6-1 record. Virtually everyone is hot for the Red Sox and with the Kansas City staff having a 5.12 ERA in their last dozen outings, bettors are thinking Boston is the play and moved them from -105 to -125. However, while this could happen, seeing the total dropping from 8.5 to 7.5 is pop out of the seat adjustment. While it is true Rick Porcello (6-1, 3.11) is off to a very good start, he has a 7.20 ERA while losing his last three outings against the Royals. Yordano Ventura (3-2, 4.62) has had mixed results this season and while he is likely to keep the BoSox in single digits, is he really the shutdown guy for K.C.?
Betting Trend – 91% backing Over and 84% on Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over and Lean Boston
MLB – (957) TAMPA BAY at (958) TORONTO 7:05 ET SUN, RSN
After a wild weekend in Texas, Toronto returns home to the hysteria of the Raptors making the Conference Finals for the very first time. J.A. Happ (5-0, 2.05) continues to befuddle baseball experts and in his last 16 starts dating back to last August, he is 12-1 with a 1.68 ERA. This is why it was mildly surprising to see the total go up from 8 to 8.5 against a Tampa Bay team averaging 3.7 RPG. With the Blue Jays 15-4 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150 and Happ 27-11 UNDER after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings, I’m betting against the line movement.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (961) TEXAS at (962) OAKLAND 10:05 ET FSSW, CSN-CA
In theory I could see why some would take Oakland from a Pick to -118 home favorite over Texas. The Rangers Derek Holland (3-2, 6.09) has been pathetic in his past two starts, allowing 16 runs in five innings. But, let’s look at Oakland. The A’s just completed nine-game Eastern road trip, had to fly home and have no rest. Having spoken to several MLB players over the years, this is always tough. Oakland starter Sean Manaea has an ERA of 11.37 in three starts and his team is 6-13 hosting Texas the last two years. With the Athletics 18-36 versus lefty starters since last season (4-9 all-time against Holland), I will play the visitor.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 86-93-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 65-55-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 152-143-2