Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for May 11th

May 11, 2016

The NBA playoffs continue and for line moves there is plenty of movement on both the side and total of Trail Blazers and Warriors Game 5. In addition, this evening we have three major moves on the baseball diamond to discuss. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (48-39 of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.

 

NBA – (539) PORTLAND at (540) GOLDEN STATE  10:30 ET  TNT (side and total)

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	After Golden State’s dramatic OT win over Portland on Monday to take 3-1 lead in the series, Draymond Green was asked if the Trail Blazers were finished for this series. “Do I think they’re done? Of course I think they’re done,” he said. Green is not alone, as the Warriors have been pumped up from -11.5 to -13 or higher depending on the sportsbook. Evidently the belief is it will also be done in typical Golden State fashion, with the total up from 216 to 217.5. Nobody knows how Stephen Curry will react after coming back from big game and minutes after knee injury and Portland is 8-1 ATS after four consecutive games as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 13-2 UNDER at home after playing two straight contests as a road favorite the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Golden State and 78% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Portland covers and Under

MLB – (921) KANSAS CITY at (922) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  ESPN

The Royals need some starting pitching help in  a hurry, as the World Series champions miscalculated what they had and have lost 11 of 13 road games and their rotation has ugly 10.23 ERA in the past six outings. Though the New York Yankees actually have poorer record, they have shot up from -132 to -145 or higher favorites tonight. Michael Pineda (1-3, 5.73 ERA) has been rounding into form despite ERA, while Yordano Ventura (2-2, 4.65) has pitched four innings in back to back starts and walked 11 batters. Taking the Royals might require intestinal fortitude, but Ventura is 17-7 away versus an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse the last three seasons. (Royals record)

Betting Trend – 53% backing Kansas City

Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins

MLB – (927) DETROIT at (928) WASHINGTON  7:05 ET  FSD, MASN

Jordan Zimmermann (5-1, 1.10) return to the place where he used to get paid, but he’s cashing much larger checks these days playing for Detroit. Zimmermann will oppose former teammate Max Scherzer (3-2, 4.60) and the Tigers have gained traction with sportsbooks, lowered from +156 to +145 or lower. Scherzer has been quite inconsistent going back to the middle of last season and if the Detroit right-hander is on his game, this could be tossup conflict. No strong feeling on the outcome, but a modest lean with Tigers who are 9-3 in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean Detroit

MLB – (929) ST. LOUIS at (930) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET  FSMW, FSW

With the Angels having four starting pitchers now on the DL, Matt Shoemaker has been recalled from Triple-A after posting a 9.15 ERA in five April starts with the big club. Los Angeles at best was thought to be a .500 club, but could be looking at 90 losses even with Mike Trout. Baseball bettors do not like their chances having dropped eight of 10 and shoved them from +115 to +125 or higher home underdogs against St. Louis. Worth noting AL home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher who average 4.2 or fewer RPG, against a team with bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less, with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is north of 7.00 over his last three starts are 12-45 since 2012.

Betting Trend – 83% backing St. Louis

Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 82-89-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 61-54-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 145-137-2

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