It is Championship Week and we will have the biggest line moves covered along with what is happening in the NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on white hot 27-14 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (701) BROOKLYN at (702) TORONTO 7:35 ET YES, SN1
Toronto has mostly continued to win with 9-4 record in last 13 games, but they have gotten away from playing solid defense which has contributed to losses. This is bore out in last five outings in which they have allowed 106.6 points a game and are 12-3 OVER in past 15, which includes the previous four. With Brooklyn’s 21st ranked scoring defense taking on the Raptors No.8 scoring offense, the total has been pushed from 208 to 210. Though the numbers point to higher scoring affair, we will make case for fewer points and lean UNDER with Toronto 15-5 UNDER after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (709) WASHINGTON at (710) PORTLAND 10:05 ET NBA-TV
After playing so well for so long, Portland’s defense just collapsed in final three contests of six-game road trip in permitting 118.6 PPG, which all ended in losses. Back home, most are convinced the Blazers are not going to solve woes with long flight home in one day and bumped the total from 211 to 214.5. However, Washington’s offense has been sour in past two tilts in ringing up 83 and 99 points. With the Trail Blazers 28-12 UNDER at home off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, we will go against the grain.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (725) GONZAGA vs. (726) ST. MARY’S 9:00 ET ESPN2
Most people that think they know about how teams are picked for the NCAA Tournament are still not sure Gonzaga is in and believe they have to knock off St. Mary’s to win automatic bid to secure spot. The Gaels are in no matter and many suspect how they have matched up with the Zags will lead to lower score. Having held Gonzaga to 67 and 58 points, compared to normal average of 79.5 PPG, the total for the WCC finale has drifted from 135 to 132.5. While the Bulldogs show a 10-2 UNDER record versus teams shooting 45% or higher, with a defense at42% or less in made baskets this season, the average score has been 136.5 PPG and with Gonzaga knowing they need to win, the OVER seems like the right choice.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CBB – (731) SACRAMENTO STATE vs. (732) MONTANA STATE 8:30 ET
The third game of the first round in the Big Sky tourney has basketball bettors pounding the UNDER, down from 149 to 143.5. Though Montana State has obvious defensive weaknesses, Sacramento State has not been able to score on the road and is 11-2 UNDER. Since being lit up for 97 points, Sac. State has given up 114 total in two contests. When neutral court teams like Hornets face a total is between 140 and 149.5 points, after allowing 65 points or less two straight games, against opponent after allowing 80 points or more, they are 33-8 UNDER since 2012.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 30-28
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 17-16-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 46-42-1