It is the weekend edition of line moves and we have wall to wall coverage of all the most important games. Also, make sure to watch the Missouri Valley title game Sunday, almost always a great contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on white hot 26-12 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NBA – (825) PHOENIX at (826) ORLANDO 7:O5 ET FSAZ, FSFL
Yesterday the total went up on Phoenix game against excellent defensive team and today the Suns total is sinking versus offensive-minded club. The Suns and Magic total has plummeted from 217.5 to 215 as Phoenix has opened four-game road trip by scoring 92 points twice. Orlando is not nearly as strong defensively as Charlotte or Miami who have beaten the Suns. We will agree with the line move direction with this brutal Suns team 20-8 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (833) UTAH at (834) MEMPHIS 7:00 ET ROOT-RM, FSSE
Utah’s offense was not great to begin with, averaging 97.9 points a game and they have taken a step backwards in last four, down to 90.7 PPG. This is the driving force for total to be down three points to 192. In surveying how Memphis is playing, I see a club that has opened things up in playing without Marc Gasol in the past five games, scoring 110.6 PPG and permitting 103.8, both well above season averages. Given the Grizzlies are 20-11 OVER at home and 13-3 OVER in same building when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, I’ll back the OVER.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over
CBB – (873) DELAWARE vs. (874) CHARLESTON 7:00 ET
The second game of the Colonial Conference first round has a climbing total from 123 to 127.5. The two schools played a couple of Under’s in the regular season, yet there has to be concerns about Delaware defense which has given 79.6 PPG away from home. But Charleston has been an UNDER machine at 18-6 and in conference play at 15-3 UNDER. I could see where these two might want to change it up and pick up the pace, but with Charleston a 6.5-point favorite, they are 8-2 UNDER in that role.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 28-28
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 16-16-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 43-42-1
CBB – (535) IOWA STATE at (536) KANSAS 4:00 ET ESPN
Kansas probably locks up a No.1 seed with a victory over Iowa State, who happens to be the last team to beat them back on Jan. 25th, 10 games ago (9-1 ATS). The Jayhawks should blast the Cyclones, but I can Iowa State hanging around.
Anticipated Line – Kansas by 9-11 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas (at these numbers)
CBB – (543) LSU at (544) KENTUCKY 2:00 ET CBS
Kentucky can at least wrap up a share of the SEC crown with a victory, while LSU needs this upset and winning the conference championship to assure NCAA bid. Almost impossible to like the LSU here with 3-7 and 2-8 ATS away records, but they should be catching sizeable points.
Anticipated Line – Kentucky by 13-15 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean LSU
CBB – (571) OREGON at (572) USC 4:00 ET PAC-12N
Oregon can win the Pac-12 outright with a victory, while a talented by defensively challenged USC squad could use a big victory for resume. Ducks are solid 11-3 and 8-4-1 ATS off spread cover.
Anticipated Line – Pick to Oregon -2
Doug’s VPID Take – Oregon covers
CBB – (587) NORTH CAROLINA at (588) DUKE 6:30 ET ESPN
As usual, the stakes are high with North Carolina trying to win at least share of ACC crown, while Duke tries to prevent the Tar Heels from doing so and sweep them in the regular season. The last dozen or more years, the visitor is the play in this hard fought rivalry.
Anticipated Line – Pick to Duke -2
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean North Carolina
NBA – Sunday (821) GOLDEN STATE at (822) L.A. LAKERS 3:35 ET ABC
The only reason to watch is Golden State, because we know how bad the Lakers are. The Warriors are 29-5 and 20-12-2 ATS on the road and 13-0 when playing with two days’ rest. Where this gets a little tricky is Curry and company is 7-6 ATS in that situation, winning by 12.5 PPG.
Anticipated Line – Golden State by 14-16 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Golden State
CBB – Sunday (879) MARYLAND at (880) INDIANA 4:30 ET CBS
Nice redemption for coachTom Crean, who was almost fired a couple times at Indiana but has the Hoosiers as Big Ten champs. This contest is about honoring Yogi Ferrell and the rest of the Indiana seniors and if the Hoosiers win this encounter and the Big Ten tourney, hard to deny them a No.1 seed.
Anticipated Line – Indiana by 5-7 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indiana
CBB – Sunday (881) WISCONSIN at (882) PURDUE 7:30 ET B10N
Excellent matchup with a Wisconsin team playing outstanding versus rugged Purdue crew. The Badgers are 7-3 ATS in true away games, while the Boilermakers are 16-1 (7-6 ATS) at home, winning by 18.1 PPG.
Anticipated Line – Purdue by 7-9 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wisconsin