The line moves on Monday have two college tournament games in which the side and total have really shifted. In the NBA we have a couple totals that have been moved around and we took those involving teams in the playoff hunt instead of Phoenix and Minnesota, which only pure degenerates are following. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on nice 56-42 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (743) DALLAS at (744) DENVER 9:05 ET FSSW, ALT2
Though Dallas has permitted 261 points in consecutive losses to Golden State and Sacramento in the last three days, the total has been lowered two points at a mile high in Denver. Somebody must be thinking because both teams played yesterday they might be tired, but the Mavs are 18-5 OVER after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games and the Nuggets are 12-4 OVER when favored. With these two 4-1 OVER in Denver of late, like all the points.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NBA – (745) L.A. LAKERS at (746) UTAH 9:05 ET TWSN, ROOT-RM+
This will be Kobe Bryant’s last time as a player in Salt Lake City and hoops bettors are convinced his team will have a tough time scoring on Utah defense and dumped the total from 194.5 to 190. Take away recent contests with high-scoring offenses like Golden State and Oklahoma City and since March 4th, the Jazz have not allowed anyone to break triple digits and given up just 88.4 points a contest. The Lakers are 7-0 UNDER revenging a loss having scored less than 85 points this season.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (597) E. TENN. STATE vs. (598) LOUISIANA TECH 11:30 ET CBSSN (side and total)
In the last game of the day at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas for the new Vegas 16 tourney, in which you divide by two to determine the number of participants, the betting action is favoring Louisiana Tech, up from -1 to -2.5. Both teams score in the upper 70′s and have pretty close defensive numbers. However, I like the underdog because the Bulldogs allow 48 percent shooting away from home and their three-point defense at 37.8%, plays into E. Tenn. State converting 37.7% from behind the arc. The total has also been juiced from 154.5 to 156 and the Bucs are 7-0 OVER having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Louis. Tech and 82% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – E. Tenn. State covers and Over
CBB – (751) NEVADA at (752) MOREHEAD STATE 8:30 ET ESPNU (side and total)
The CBI tournament has a different twist with championship round a best 2 of 3. It will start at Morehead State and they have been lifted from -3 to -4.5. Though the Eagles played in weaker conference, they were 13-2 (7-6 ATS) at home, winning by 12.6 PPG. Nevada plays very good defense, but they have shot under 40% outside of Reno in 18 games, contributing to them catching more points. The total has been jettisoned from 141 to 143.5, but we note with offensive issues, the Wolf Pack is 6-0 UNDER in away tourney tilts.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Morehead State and 53% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans on Morehead State and Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 46-52
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 29-25-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 75-75-1