Not as much occurring for line moves on the March Madness side, with only one game having any real movement, but it is on both the side and total. We have three line moves in the NBA and break them all down. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on nice 54-36, 60% run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (851) MINNESOTA at (852) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET FSNO, CSN-MA
The average total score of Minnesota game in their last five has been 218 total points, which is basically where oddsmakers started at 218.5. But this has not held up and the total has been sent to 216. In attempting to understand why, you have to peel back some of the numbers. The Timberwolves having not scored over 100 points in past three meetings has to be considered. The T-Wolves as a +7.5 underdog looks like it could be an Over play, since they are 20-11 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Yet when bring out the magnifying glass, the average total score of those contests have been 208.1 total points. We agree with the direction of line move.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NBA – (859) ORLANDO at (860) MIAMI 8:05 ET SUN, FSFL
After winning nine of 12, Miami was mauled in 24-point thumping at San Antonio Wednesday. With the Heat back home to face in-state rival Orlando, they are catching a lot of support and have been lifted from -7.5 to -10. The Magic’s poor play is driving the action, having lost five in a row, five straight on the road and 18 of 22 (9-13 ATS) away from Mickey Mouse’s East Coast vacation home. Still, this sounds like a lot of points and Orlando is still 20-16 ATS on the road and 11-2 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog this season.
Betting Trend – 50-50 split
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Orlando
NBA – (865) DENVER at (866) L.A. LAKERS 10:35 ET ALT, TWSN
With Denver after its sixth straight win over the Lakers at the Staples Center (5-0 ATS), the Nuggets have been elevated from -1.5 to -3. Denver has not been stellar on the road lately with 1-5 mark (1-4-1 ATS), but this is the Lakers we are talking about. It might appear Los Angles could finally break through, but the Nuggets are 7-0 ATS away after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Denver
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver
CBB – (871) WISCONSIN vs. (872) NOTRE DAME 7:25 ET TBS (side and total)
Wisconsin has won and covered two tournament contests thanks to some luck and stifling defense which has given up only 106 points. Notre Dame needed huge comeback to defeat Michigan and got a fortunate tip in to quell S.F. Austin, but the odds have moved in their favor. The Fighting Irish have gone from a Pick to -1.5 and the total is up two points to 131.5, which would seem to be in their favor or just letting the world know Mike Brey’s defense is not all that great. Based on the teams, if you prefer the Badgers to win, the UNDER is a good match and if you can see Notre Dame coming out on top, the OVER makes the most sense. I’ll sort of go somewhere in the middle.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over and 57% on Notre Dame
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over and slight lean Notre Dame
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 43-49
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 28-24-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 69-72-1