The NBA Finals are ready to commence and today we at Line Moves notice the total is being moved around. We also have three line moves on the diamond, including a third straight contest in the AL East. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (87-64, 57.6% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (501) CLEVELAND at (502) GOLDEN STATE 9:00 ET ABC
Though Golden State is actually the better defensive team when talking about shooting percentage (43.2 vs. 44.9 percent), it is Cleveland who is driving the betting markets and lowering the total from 210 to 208. Both earlier games David Blatt was the Cavs coach and they are playing differently now on both ends of the court. For this matchup, really challenging choice because it will be about turnovers and if either team converts into immediate points, we have an OVER. If they just prevent scoring, we have an UNDER.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under
MLB – (907) PITTSBURGH at (908) MIAMI 7:10 ET RTPT, FSFL
Outside of Pittsburgh’s series opener 10-run outburst, this has been rather quiet series for scoring, with nine total other runs plated. Betters believe that ends tonight with Juan Nicasio (4-4, 4.79 ERA) opposing Wei-Yin Chen (3-2, 4.37) of Miami. The road/road dichotomy strongly comes into play, with Nicasio sporting a 6.75 away ERA and Chen at 5.35 at Marlins Park. This has pushed the total from 8 to 8.5. With neither offense firing, we uncovered the Pirates are 20-6 UNDER after allowing three runs or less in three straight games and the Fish are 19-7 UNDER at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
MLB – (911) BOSTON at (912) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET NESN, MASN
Baseball bettors have been all over this series, however, this time it is the money line they are concerned with. Boston has gone from -125 road faves to -140 or higher because skipper Buck Showalter lacks a better option than starting Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 6.36), who has an ERA of 11.35 in past three starts and is averaging over five walks per nine innings along with being hit hard. At first glance this is easy money right, but the Red Sox Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.68) is 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA in 12 career starts against the Birds. Here is a lean with the BoSox, since the Orioles are 17-34 at home after scoring and allowing eight runs or more in the past 19 years.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
MLB – (915) TAMPA BAY at (916) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET SUN, FSNO
Both these AL clubs are headed towards long seasons, with Minnesota’s starting basically on opening day. Both enter this fray on losing streaks with starting pitchers who are really scuffling and the total in turn has crept up from 8.5 to 9. Both Matt Moore and Kyle Gibson are not getting the job done, but neither are either offenses. With the Rays 10-2 OVER in road games after a loss and the Twins 19-8 OVER after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span, we will follow the flow.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 97-104-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 82-66-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 181-164-2