Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for June 28th

June 28, 2016

For line moves today, the majority of the line moves at least early on have occurred on totals side. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (122-98, 55.4% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Thursday.

MLB – (905) L.A DODGERS at (906) MILWAUKEE  8:10 ET  SNLA, FSWI

The Los Angeles offense has been rather uninteresting the last several games, averaging 3.7 runs per contest but did reach five in their 5-4 win last night in Milwaukee. Those betting baseball are unconvinced this will carry over and dropped this NL total from 9 to 8.5. From Dodger perspective, this is possible, with rookie Julio Urias (0-2, 4.35 ERA) posting a 2.33 ERA in last four starts. However, the Brewers view is more muddled with Chase Anderson (4-7, 5.13) dropped from last start and trying to regroup from recent 7.07 ERA over last three outings. Though I have reasons to go against, Anderson is 12-3 OVER at home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game the past three years.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (907) PHILADELPHIA at (908) ARIZONA  9:40 ET   CSP, FSAZ

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comArizona is getting the Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.61) they paid for, who has 2.18 ERA in his last eight starts, and he has held opponents to a .191 batting average and a .224 on-base percentage in that span. Philadelphia will counter with Jerad Eickhoff (5-9, 3.36), whose pitched better then record indicates, with Monday’s Phillies 8-run showing an outlier performance for a club scoring 3.4 RPG. This has sent the total from 8 to 7.5, but I am looking at Phils offense averaging 6.3 RPG in their last seven tries and Greinke has ERA this season over 5 at Chase Field, which has me betting the other way.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (911) BOSTON at (912) TAMPA BAY  7:10 ET  NESN, SUN

With Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.89) sporting 4.32 ERA on the road and Chris Archer (4-10, 4.70) continuing to scuffle, the total in this AL East encounter has been bumped up from 7.5 to 8. Tampa Bay ended their 11-game losing streak last night with 13-7 beat down of Boston, yet on the season they are still 23-12 UNDER at The Trop. Once again, I will disagree with what the sportsbooks have done and found Porcello is 9-3 UNDER against the Rays, Archer is 6-1 UNDER at home this season and home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn is 8-3 UNDER in 2016.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Under

MLB – (927) PITTSBURGH at (928) SEATTLE  10:10 ET   RTPT, RTNW

If you are betting baseball, you are well aware Pittsburgh has been in the tank this month with an 8-18 record. However, the Mariners have been like a fishermen out of water in losing seven of their last nine. Seattle has absolutely blown up from -140 to -175, taking on Jon Niese (6-5, 4.93), who we have described here over the years as a faucet, running either hot or cold and right now its definitely the latter with a 9.18 ERA over three starts. The M’s are hardly a sure bet with 17-19 home record, 11-16 mark versus left-handers and Hisashi Iwakuma 3-8 as a home favorite of -150 or more the last two seasons. (Mariners Record)

Betting Trend – 82% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean Seattle

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 119-120-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 99-85-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 214-206-2

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