For line moves today, the majority of the line moves at least early on have occurred on totals side. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (122-98, 55.4% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Thursday.
MLB – (905) L.A DODGERS at (906) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET SNLA, FSWI
The Los Angeles offense has been rather uninteresting the last several games, averaging 3.7 runs per contest but did reach five in their 5-4 win last night in Milwaukee. Those betting baseball are unconvinced this will carry over and dropped this NL total from 9 to 8.5. From Dodger perspective, this is possible, with rookie Julio Urias (0-2, 4.35 ERA) posting a 2.33 ERA in last four starts. However, the Brewers view is more muddled with Chase Anderson (4-7, 5.13) dropped from last start and trying to regroup from recent 7.07 ERA over last three outings. Though I have reasons to go against, Anderson is 12-3 OVER at home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game the past three years.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (907) PHILADELPHIA at (908) ARIZONA 9:40 ET CSP, FSAZ
Arizona is getting the Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.61) they paid for, who has 2.18 ERA in his last eight starts, and he has held opponents to a .191 batting average and a .224 on-base percentage in that span. Philadelphia will counter with Jerad Eickhoff (5-9, 3.36), whose pitched better then record indicates, with Monday’s Phillies 8-run showing an outlier performance for a club scoring 3.4 RPG. This has sent the total from 8 to 7.5, but I am looking at Phils offense averaging 6.3 RPG in their last seven tries and Greinke has ERA this season over 5 at Chase Field, which has me betting the other way.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (911) BOSTON at (912) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET NESN, SUN
With Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.89) sporting 4.32 ERA on the road and Chris Archer (4-10, 4.70) continuing to scuffle, the total in this AL East encounter has been bumped up from 7.5 to 8. Tampa Bay ended their 11-game losing streak last night with 13-7 beat down of Boston, yet on the season they are still 23-12 UNDER at The Trop. Once again, I will disagree with what the sportsbooks have done and found Porcello is 9-3 UNDER against the Rays, Archer is 6-1 UNDER at home this season and home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn is 8-3 UNDER in 2016.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Under
MLB – (927) PITTSBURGH at (928) SEATTLE 10:10 ET RTPT, RTNW
If you are betting baseball, you are well aware Pittsburgh has been in the tank this month with an 8-18 record. However, the Mariners have been like a fishermen out of water in losing seven of their last nine. Seattle has absolutely blown up from -140 to -175, taking on Jon Niese (6-5, 4.93), who we have described here over the years as a faucet, running either hot or cold and right now its definitely the latter with a 9.18 ERA over three starts. The M’s are hardly a sure bet with 17-19 home record, 11-16 mark versus left-handers and Hisashi Iwakuma 3-8 as a home favorite of -150 or more the last two seasons. (Mariners Record)
Betting Trend – 82% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean Seattle
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 119-120-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 99-85-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 214-206-2