Another big weekend of baseball activity and we have a trio of Friday line moves plus a what to look at in three key series betting opportunities. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (120-95, 55.8% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
MLB – (901) L.A. DODGERS at (902) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET SNLA, RTPT
Los Angeles and Pittsburgh are heading in opposite directions, with the Dodgers surging and the Pirates plummeting. However, those betting baseball see more opportunity in the total and it has risen from 8 to 8.5. Rookie right-hander Jameson Taillon (1-1,3.50 ERA) appears to have a bright future, but unless he can go deep into the contest, the Bucs bullpen has been problematic. The Dodgers back of the rotation is so thin, they have turned to former Texas pitcher Nick Tepesch, who last started in 2014. With Pittsburgh 11-3 OVER after four or more consecutive home games, the higher score is the play.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (921) BOSTON at (922) TEXAS 8:05 ET NESN, FSSW
After a short dull period, Boston has started to swing the lumber again and should have a good chance for a victory with David Price (8-4, 4.24) on the hill. Baseball bettors are of the opinion the Red Sox will knock around the Rangers Nick Martinez (1-1, 5.14) and elevated the total from 9 to 9.5. Boston comes in 9-0 OVER with an on-base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games, while Texas is 8-0 OVER at home versus teams outscoring opponents by one or more runs a game on the season.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (929) ST. LOUIS at (930) SEATTLE 10:05 ET FSMW, RTNW
This line movement makes no sense to this baseball handicapper. St. Louis is flying high after sweeping the Cubs at Wrigley for the first time in 18 years, yet is a falling favorite to Seattle who is scraping the bottom of the barrel for starting pitching due to injuries. The Cardinals opened at -135 and swooped to -120 or lower, in spite of the fact they are facing Wade LeBlanc, who the Mariners picked up out of desperation from Toronto on Wednesday. The Cards will counter with Carlos Martinez (7-5, 3.17), who over his past four starts is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA. Too much value on St. Louis to pass on.
Betting Trend – 86% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 117-119-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 98-82-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 209-205-2
MLB – CLEVELAND (-110) at DETROIT (-110) – Series Betting
Cleveland is 6-0 over Detroit this season, playing their best baseball of the season and is likely to be favored in first two road games against the Tigers with Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. With Justin Verlander throwing Sunday, Jordan Zimmermann needs to return to early season form if the Detroit is going to take this series in the opener against Salazar. Both teams arrive in good form and I will call for the Tigers to improve on their good 21-13 home record.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Detroit at -110
MLB - HOUSTON (-125) at KANSAS CITY (+105) – Series Betting
You could make a case based on the pitching matchups Houston should be favored in all three encounters. Yet, one cannot overlook Kansas City is 25-8 at Kauffman Stadium. The Astros are brimming with confidence in winning five straight and eight of nine, but the World Series champs still have a lot pride and end up taking this series versus Houston squad that is 50-71 on the road since last year.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Kansas City at +105
MLB – TORONTO (-115) at CHICAGO (-105) – Series Betting
Toronto is a significant road favorite on Friday night with improving offense and a talented Aaron Sanchez pitching. On Sunday, Chicago will be most likely an even bigger favorite when Chris Sale takes the ball for the White Sox. With this the case, this could mean Saturday’s contest is the one which will determine series winner and expected starters are R.A. Dickey against Miguel Gonzalez. We will give the benefit of the doubt to the Pale Hose, who have played well the past couple years against the Blue Jays.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Chicago at -105