With basketball in the books with Cleveland’s historic comeback, was a little shocked to see as many line moves in baseball with a small amount of games. But bettors want the action and we have it covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (114-83, 57.8% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (905) COLORADO at (906) MIAMI 7:10 ET RTRM, FSFL
This is the completion of the wraparound series (playing over weekend with Monday game) between these NL combatants and Miami is out for a 4-0 sweep. It has been rather one-sided with the Marlins holding a 17-7 scoring edge. Those betting baseball have taken Miami from -107 to -123 over Colorado, though neither starting pitcher is expected to be around long. The Rockies Jorge De La Rosa (2-4, 7.61 ERA) has been brutal and 28-year Paul Clemens has not started a game since 2013 and is 4-8 with a 5.51 ERA lifetime. With the Marlins 11-4 versus lefty’s this year and 9-2 against NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game, probably the safe choice.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami
MLB – (907) ST. LOUIS at (908) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 ET FSMW, CSN-C
With the total climbing from 7.5 to 8.5 in this rivalry conflict, first thought was to check wind conditions at Wrigley, but it shows wind coming in from leftfield at 8-13 MPH, so that is not a factor. Both Jamie Garcia (4-6, 3.93) and John Lackey (7-2, 2.66) have ERA’s under 2.35 against the opposing teams and they are a combined 7-2 UNDER in their starts. With St. Louis in the throes of five-game losing streak, in which the offense tallied 10 total runs, you cannot ignore they are 8-0 OVER in road games after one or more Under’s this season. Nevertheless, Lackey is 14-3 UNDER versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game in his career.
Betting Trend – 50-50 split
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (911) SEATTLE at (912) DETROIT 7:10 ET RTNW, FSD
Both these AL clubs enter this fray having lost three consecutive series as they get ready to play four times to start the week. Visiting Seattle has sportsbooks lifting them from -115 to -140 over Detroit. It is likely a trust factor, with the Mariners Nathan Karns (5-2, 4.06) deemed a more reliable choice than Mike Pelfrey (1-7, 4.79). Have to agree and Seattle is 8-1 in road games after scoring two runs or less this season.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
MLB – (919) BALTIMORE at (920) TEXAS 8:05 ET MASN2, FSSW
Finding it increasingly harder to understand what those generating baseball picks do not like about Texas. The Rangers have the second-best record in baseball at 45-25, yet have been underdogs in 50 of their 70 games. (By comparison, the Cubs have dogs seven times) Having just swept St. Louis on the road, Texas is back home and has gone from a -110 favorite to +105 or larger underdog with winless Kevin Gausman (0-4, 4.14) doing battle with Derek Holland (5-5, 5.14), with Holland and teammates 4-1 when he takes the ball at home. Once again, don’t look past Baltimore’s 8-0 record after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent, but doesn’t Texas 14-3 record versus power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers a game count for something where they are 24-10?
Betting Trend – 78% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Texas
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 111-115-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 94-80-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 200-196-2