Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for June 17-19

June 17, 2016

On Father’s Day, we could see line moves on Game 7 of NBA Finals, but nothing much yet. Otherwise, we have a great deal of baseball action to cover, both as individual games and as series for this weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (112-82, 57.7% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.

MLB – (965) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (966) CLEVELAND  7:10 ET  CSN-C, STO

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Other than Minnesota, the AL Central appears it will be quite competitive this season. Though Cleveland is in first and Chicago is in fourth place, they are only separated by three games. For this contest, those betting baseball are either real smart or they are not. The White Sox have been shifted from +105 to -115 road favorites with Jose Quintana, who despite 5-7 record has the fourth best ERA in AL, thanks to teammates averaging 2.76 runs per game in his starts. Thus, bettors are on to something and expect Chicago to breakthrough or they could be all wrong with the Indians 33-15 having lost four of their last five games since 2014. 

Betting Trend – 70% backing Cleveland

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland

MLB – (973) L.A.A. ANGELS at (974) OAKLAND  9:35 ET  FSW, CSN-CA

The two worst squads in the AL West will collide and oddsmakers are juicing up the visiting Angels from -115 to -140. After as horrific start to season, which included a trip to Triple-A, Matt Shoemaker (3-7, 4.77) out of necessity returned to Anaheim and has been a different pitcher. The right-hander has 2.38 ERA in his past three starts, all at least seven innings and has 25 strikeouts and just one walk. With Oakland having lost 10 of 12 and the A’s 3-9 in Kendall Graveman’s (2-6, 5.29) starts this season, the Athletics might be digging their own grave against the Halos.

Betting Trend – 55% backing L.A.A.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A.

MLB – (975) SAN FRANCISCO at (976) TAMPA BAY  7:10 ET  CSN-BA, SUN

This is just the 10th all-time game between these teams, which is a real rarity. Tampa Bay has really been hit by the injury bug and manager Kevin Cash is just plugging in next available healthy player and somehow they have won nine of 12. San Francisco hits the road on a five-game win streak, yet there are concerns about Jeff Samardzija (7-4, 3.36) effectiveness (7.36 ERA L3S) and the Rays have gone from -115 to -127 or higher favorite for those assembling baseball picks. Chris Archer (4-8, 4.61) will toe the rubber for Tampa Bay and he’s been a mystery all season, though modestly improving lately. I’m going to trust the underdog, who is 18-3 after batting .333 or better over a three-game span the last two seasons.

Betting Trend – 83% backing San Francisco

Doug’s VPID Take -Lean San Francisco

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 110-114-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 93-80-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 200-193-2

MLB - TORONTO (-120) at BALTIMORE (+105) – Series Betting

The Blue Jays have finally been gathering a little momentum and are favored in the series opener behind Aaron Sanchez. The second conflict brings more uncertainty with R.A. Dickey going against returning Yovani Gallardo. Give the edge to Baltimore in the finale with Chris Tillman over Marcus Stroman. I like the Orioles to take the last two games and get a bit of revenge after 1-3 trip to Toronto earlier this month.

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Baltimore +105

MLB - COLORADO (Even) at MIAMI (-120) – Series Betting

No complaining about picking these two teams, at least the series is supposed to be competitive. Friday’s affair could go either way with improving Jon Gray for Colorado and up and down Adam Conley for Miami. In the Saturday showdown, have cashed with Tyler Chatwood of the Rockies a few times this season and can see that happening again. On Sunday, though not a fan of the Marlins Tom Koehler, prefer his experience over Tyler Anderson and will give a slight nod to the Fish to win the series.

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Miami -120

MLB – TEXAS (+150) at ST. LOUIS (-175) – Series Betting

St. Louis was swept in two-game home series by Houston and will do battle over the weekend versus the other club from the Lone Star State. Maybe I have a bad read on this series, but the numbers seem high seeing the Cardinals are 15-16 at Busch Stadium and Texas is the best road bet in baseball at +8.8 units. Have to like Cole Hamels in Game 1 over inconsistent Michael Wacha. In the other two confrontations, the Cards will be favored with Carlos Martinez and Mike Leake against Cesar Ramos and Martin Perez respectively. However, these Rangers find ways to win and I can imagine winning a game they should not to take the series.

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Texas +150

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