Sort of a peculiar day for line moves, with some different points of view being expressed by sports bettors and we will look them over. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (132-103, 56.1% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET CSN-C, RTPT
With fame comes adulation, but when you start to falter, the negativity kicks in. The Chicago Cubs have lost 18 of last 31 games and last seven of eight, some to really bad teams and they have fallen 20 cents on the money to -160 road favorites over Pittsburgh. It has been in all facets, hitting, fielding and mental blunders and their once impregnable pitching staff now looks very average. Even Jake Arrieta (12-3, 2.33 ERA) has looked ordinary of late, but he is 9-1 with a 1.46 ERA in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh. The Bucs are winners of 10 of 13, but Francisco Liriano (5-8, 5.34) has faltered all season and been shredded twice by the Cubs. Better value is taking the Pirates, but honestly do not like the game.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Pittsburgh
MLB – (905) WASHINGTON at (906) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET MASN, SNY
The Mets moved one step closer to first place Washington in the NL East yesterday and there are those betting baseball who believe they can crawl even closer today. New York opened as +105 home underdogs with Noah Syndergaard (9-3, 2.41), but by late this morning the Metropolitans were -115 favorites. Nonetheless, manager Dusty Baker does have an ace up his sleeve in Stephen Strasburg (11-0, 2.71). The Nationals are 14-1 when Strasburg toes the rubber this season and they are 8-3 versus New York when he faces them. This has me leaning with original fave.
Betting Trend – 83% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
MLB – (907) PHILADELPHIA at (908) COLORADO 8:10 ET CSP, RTRM
Philadelphia had won eight of nine before arriving at the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Last night the Phillies feel under an avalanche of Rockies runs in 11-2 setback and sportsbooks have adjusted the money against Philly, thinking the they could fall again, rising from +120 to +140. The Phils will take their chances with talented Vince Velasquez (7-2,3.34) and he will oppose fellow 24-year Jon Gray (5-4, 4.81). Though Gray is more beatable at Coors Field, Philadelphia has not handled beatdowns well and is 1-15 revenging a road blowout loss of eight runs or more since 2014.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado
MLB – (925) OAKLAND at (926) HOUSTON 8:10 ET CSN-CA, RTSW
The Oakland offense is about as scary as 12-year old lap dog, averaging 2.6 runs a contest in their past seven outings. With Houston’s Collin McHugh (5-6, 4.50) as far better pitcher at home and owning 3.23 ERA against the A’s in six starts, the total has dwindled from 8.5 to 8. While I would like to think contrarian here, when the total is 7 to 8.5 and an AL club like Oakland is batting .265 or less against a decent starting pitcher (ERA range of 4.20 to 4.70) and they are hitting .200 or worse over their last five games, they are 35-11 UNDER since 2012.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 121-123-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 107-90-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 227-212-2