Seven of today’s 16 encounters (one doubleheader) are interleague affairs and two have line moves on totals. We also a pair of National League battles to take a look into. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (151-124) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (903) PHILADELPHIA at (904) MIAMI 7:10 ET CSP, FSFL
The Marlins offense has gone colder than those egg rolls found at the back of the freezer in not scoring a run in 19 consecutive innings. This has lead to Miami plummeting from -160 to -145. Marlins starter Tom Koehler (7-8, 4.42 ERA) does not inspire confidence, though this season he is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA in three starts against the Phillies this season. Jerad Eickhoff (6-11, 3.98) has pitched better than record indicates, but the innings might be catching up to him with 8.27 ERA in past trio of starts and he’s 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA against Miami. Marlins bats are concern, making this just a lean.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Miami
MLB – (907) CINCINNATI at (908) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET FSOH, CSN-BA (side and total)
At the All-Star break, San Francisco had the best record in baseball. Fast forward to today and the Giants are a mere 2.5 games ahead of Los Angeles in the NL West, thanks to 1-8 second half start. With Matt Cain (1-6, 5.88) the Giants scheduled pitcher, sportsbooks in Nevada likely for a period looked like a sell-off on the Wall Street floor, with San Fran plunging 20 cents to -130 and the total climbing from 8 to 8.5. Cain has gone from workhorse to plow horse and only in rotation because of contract. With Reds offense red-hot at 6.4 runs a game in their last seven outings facing Cain, the OVER seems doable. Not sure what to think about Cincy’s rookie Cody Reed (0-4, 6.75), thus, give slight edge to Giants bullpen to win this one.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Over and 88% on San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over and slight lean with San Francisco
MLB – (923) WASHINGTON at (924) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET MASN, STO
Washington’s Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.58) has not been the asset skipper Dusty Baker had hoped for, but the left-hander has made strides of late with 3-1 mark 3.80 ERA. Gonzalez visits Cleveland again like he used to with Oakland and matches up with first time All-Star Danny Salazar (11-3, 2.75). Those betting baseball have lowered the total from 8.5 to 8. Though the Nationals are 10-2 Under as road underdogs this season, the Tribe is home off extended road trip and comes out swinging to improve upon 14-4 OVER record at home after three or more consecutive away games the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (927) CHIC. CUBS at (928) CHIC. WHITE SOX 7:10 ET ESPN
The “Cross-Town Classic” continues on the south side and the total is down from 9.5 to 9, with Kyle Hendricks (9-6, 2.27) taking on James Shields (4-12, 4.99). Hendricks has been superb all year and has permitted three earned runs in past half dozen starts, including none in the last three. On June 9th, Shields ERA was approaching double digits, but he’s made five quality starts in succession, not allowing more than two runs in any of them. With Hendricks 20-8 UNDER after dark and the White Sox 15-3 UNDER at The Cell after two or more consecutive wins since last season, we will follow the betting trend.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 134-130-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 116-101-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 252-230-2