The weekend edition of line moves returns, looking in depth at three Friday contests plus a trio of series wagers. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (148-121, 55% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
MLB – (907) N.Y. METS at (908) MIAMI 7:10 ET SNY, FSFL
Miami’s recent surge in winning eight of 10 games has catapulted them into second place in the NL East ahead of the New York, and they will be seeking to expand that lead beginning tonight. Those betting baseball think they can and moved the Marlins from -135 to -160. It starts with preference of Adam Conley (6-5, 3.61 ERA) over Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.21) for the Mets. The left-handed Conley has been in very good form of late and going back to last season, he and his mates are 11-3 in the second half of the season. Also, the Fish are 28-9 at home having won two of their last three contests.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami wins
MLB – (909) CHIC. CUBS at (910) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET CSN-C+, FSWI
Unless you lived in upper Midwest, you might not know how much Brewers fans have no use for Cubs fans, especially when at home in Milwaukee. Cubs fans make it sound like a home game at Miller Park and the Brewers ownership is happy/sad, because besides the noise, they sell way more tickets and everything else goes up with increased revenues. Speaking of going up, that is what the total is doing in this NL Central clash, elevated from 8.5 to 9. This could be mistake, as both Jason Hammel (8-5, 3.34) and Jimmy Nelson (6-7, 3.39) have been in good form. Chicago is 30-13 UNDER after allowing two runs or less in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (929) SAN FRANCISCO at (930) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET MLB-TV
This almost never happens, Madison Bumgarner (10-5, 2.12) and San Francisco go from favorites to underdogs. Yet, that is the case tonight, with the Giants switched from -125 to +100 at last look against the Yankees. San Francisco has lost five straight and faces Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 3.15), who has a 1.89 ERA in past three outings. The situation for Bronx Bombers is further enhanced with Tanaka and the Yanks 9-0 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. Though San Fran is reeling, Mad Bum is 18-2 on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 (Giants Record) and I forecast he is stopper tonight.
Betting Trend – 78% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – San Francisco wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 131-128-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 116-99-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 248-227-2
MLB – CLEVELAND (-130) at BALTIMORE (+110) – Series Betting
Baltimore’s slide has knocked them out of first place in the AL East and they are rare home series underdogs to Cleveland, who has the best record in the league. It is easier to understand why this is occurring when the Indians will be favored in the first and last games of the series and could be smaller underdogs on Saturday against the O’s Kevin Gausman, who is 1-7 on the season. Though the Birds have been fluttering of late, I think offense comes through for series upset.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Baltimore at +110
MLB – L.A. DODGERS (-125) at ST. LOUIS (+105) – Series Betting
Despite a depleted starting staff, the Los Angeles replacements and top tier bullpen has the Dodgers closing in on San Fran and they are favored in this series over St. Louis, who is spite of four-game sweep of San Diego, are still only 24-28 at Busch. L.A. will open each contest as a road favorite having a modest edge in starting pitching, but they almost never play well on the shores of the muddy Mississippi river and I’ll give a slight nod to the home club.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play St. Louis at +105
MLB – TEXAS (+100) at KANSAS CITY (-120) – Series Betting
Two declining AL squads collide and this more about survival. Texas has lost 14 of 18, while Kansas is 5-11 in July. The Rangers will have the better starting pitcher in each matchup, but if they falter at all, no help from the league’s worst bullpen. Texas winning would not be a stunner, however, the Royals are 30-15 at home and get the nod.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Kansas City at -120