Time to move ahead to Thursday and coming off 4-0 day for line moves picks, let’s see if we can keep if going and what others think as well. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (146-118, 55.3% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (955) MILWAUKEE at (956) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSWI, RTPT
No, we did not screw up, it just happens to be déjà vu all over again in the finale of this series. Yesterday we reported this total went from 8.5 to 9 and the exact same thing as occurred in this NL Central showdown. On Wednesday our preference was to take the higher score and this will happen again tonight. With starting pitchers like Matt Garza (1-3, 5.74 ERA) having an 8.81 ERA in past three starts and Francisco Liriano (5-9, 5.11) having significant control issues (62 walks in 98 2/3 innings), what info is out there to think otherwise? With Pittsburgh a -180 favorite, Liriano is 14-4 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more since last season.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (959) ATLANTA at (960) COLORADO 8:40 ET FSSE, RTRM
Colorado took series at Atlanta last weekend and tonight they open four-game set in the Rockies. The team with black and purple colors was sent out by sportsbooks as -165 home favorite and they have been bumped up to -180. The concern has to be the Braves keeping up offensively at Coors Field, where the Rockies average 6.1 runs per game and Atlanta is at paltry 3.3 RPG on the road in 2016. Chad Bettis (7-6, 5.55) is Colorado starter and he has ERA over 6 at home, yet his teammates are 6-2 in his starts. The Rocks should take this one, I’m just not thrilled about paying this price to back them.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Colorado
MLB – (965) DETROIT at (966) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET FSD, CSN-C (side and total)
This AL Central showdown seems to be sending mixed messages. In spite of Chicago’s James Shields (4-11, 5.10) permitting just nine runs in past 33 1/3 innings, the White Sox have been lowered from -140 to -120 against Detroit and Mike Pelfrey (2-9, 4.95). With temperatures close to 95 by game time, U.S. Cellular Field is known as hitter park anyways and ball flies even further when the heat is turned up. With these two starters and the ball expected to carry, the total has been juiced from 10 to 10.5 and even 11 at some wagering outlets. Not much to like about this conflict, however, like Shields and Sox bullpen more in this spot and believe the total is now too high.
Betting Trend – 50-50 on side and 63% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Leans on Chicago and Under
MLB – (967) TAMPA BAY at (968) OAKLAND 10:05 ET CSN-CA
On most general managers lists looking to make trade before the end of the month are tonight’s opposing pitchers, Matt Moore (5-7, 4.33) vs. Sonny Gray (4-8, 5.12). Whatever contenders who might want to give up talent to acquire either hurler, they have to have the belief they will perform better than they have this season. With Tampa Bay discovering offense in recent games (30 runs in last four contests), they have shrunk from +135 to +105 road underdogs. In truth, probably best to Pass, with Gray and A’s 4-12 in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less RPG and Moore and Rays 0-8 away vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 2014. If I had the Donald and Hillary both asking me make a pick at the same time in either ear, the slightest of leans with the home team.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take - Slight lean Oakland
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 129-128-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 116-97-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 245-225-2