Today’s theme for line moves ends up being a mostly big teams from big cities the way it worked out. With some of the records we have here, good reason to back teams in the various elements. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (142-115, 55.2% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (955) L.A. DODGERS at (956) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET SNLA, MASN2
With Joe Ross on the DL, Washington has called up hard-throwing Reynaldo Lopez from Double-A to have him make is big league debut. Lopez was 4-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 16 minor league starts this year, but bettors are not overly impressed and flipped the Nationals from -120 favorites to +105 underdogs against Scott Kazmir (7-3, 4.52 ERA) and Los Angeles. I usually pass when this type of pitcher is involved, but I will give the nod to the Nats with Kazmir 2-11 in road games playing against a team with a winning record since last season. (Team’s Record)
Betting Trend – 61% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Washington
MLB – (959) N.Y. METS at (960) CHIC. CUBS 7:05 ET ESPN
Exceptional pitching matchup from last year’s finalists in the NL. Noah Syndergaard (9-4, 2.56) will match tosses with Jake Arrieta (12-4, 2.68). In what seems like a daily occurrence, if the Cubs are favored by -160 or higher, every morning the money line on them comes down and that is no different today, now at -145. Sometimes it stays, sometimes it goes back up. Though big fans of Thor (Syndergaard), with the total at 7, Arrieta and Chicago are 25-6 when this numbers pops up and added value of lower figure is too good to pass up.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins
MLB – (963) BALTIMORE at (964) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET MASN, YES
With both these AL East offenses in the porcelain depository, the total has been flushed from 9.5 to 9, in spite of what looks like very shaky starting pitching. Nathan Eovaldi (7-6, 5.11) is 0-4 with a 9.20 ERA in his last six starts, but has improved coming out of the bullpen three consecutive times and not allowed a run in 7 2/3 innings. Vance Worley (2-0, 2.87) is making a spot start for Baltimore and in two previous tries in this role in 2016 has 5.06 ERA. The Orioles are averaging 3.0 runs per game in last seven tries, while the Yankees are at 2.5 RPG in their past four. The Yanks are 13-3 UNDER after three division contests in a row this season and could well have another in their future.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (971) TEXAS at (972) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET FSSW, FSW
Years ago, toss out the names Kyle Lohse (0-1, 10.80) and Tim Lincecum (1-3, 6.85) and you had the makings of a pretty good pitchers battle. Not anymore, with both well past their prime and the total has been battered like there tosses from 9 all the way to 10. No question this is a large number especially at the Big A in Anaheim, but the Angels offense has been clicking and Texas should have good swings against the former multiple Cy Young winner and 6-5 outcome seems possible.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 129-126-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 112-95-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 239-223-2