Back to work for the masses and another week of line moves commences. One game not mentioned is Texas and the L.A.A. Angels, who had side and total numbers moving, but that is because of pitching change. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (140-113, 55.3% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) MIAMI at (902) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSFL, CSP
Jose Fernandez (11-4, 2.52 ERA) has been a strong force for Miami this season and being thought to have another outstanding performance tonight, as the total has been lowered from 7.5 to 7 in Philadelphia. Chances are Fernandez will limit the Phillies offense, but if a lower total is really in the works, that will depend on Aaron Nola (5-8, 4.69), who has an ERA over 13 in last three starts. With the Marlins 24-9 OVER as a road favorite of -110 or higher the last two seasons, I’ll go against the grain.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (903) ATLANTA at (904) CINCINNATI 7:05 ET FSSE, FSOH
It it sometimes funny what bettors dig up, like finding reasons to move money line in matchup of the two worst teams in the National League. Granted, seeing Cincinnati as a -145 home favorite against a good slow-pitch softball team seems like a reach and they are down 15 cents to -130 against Atlanta. As bad as the Braves are, they are somewhat competitive 18-25 (+7.3 units) on the road, which is comparable to Reds 20-26 (-4.2) home mark. Not much too choose from the starting pitchers and bullpens, thus will ever so slightly lean with Cincy, which provides a frisson of fear.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Cincinnati
MLB – (913) CLEVELAND at (914) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET STO, FSKC
Though it is only July, if Kansas City is going to cut into Cleveland’s eight-game division lead, now would be a great opportunity, starting a three-game series with the Indians. Those betting baseball have enough influential money wagered to convince sportsbooks this is unlikely to happen tonight, as the Indians have been beefed up from -135 to -155. The Tribe’s 28-21 road record along with Cory Kluber (9-8, 3.61) is more influential than the Royals tremendous 29-13 home mark and having Edinson Volquez (8-8, 4.85) take the mound. The game is on the K.C. right-hander, who has 2.18 ERA when Kansas City wins this season and bloated 9.44 ERA when they lose. Let’s take Royals who are 11-1 at home when opposing pitcher has ERA under 4.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins
MLB – (921) TAMPA BAY at (922) COLORADO 8:40 ET SUN, RTRM
This is just the sixth-ever series between these clubs and oddly enough the fifth at Coors Field. Though the Tampa Bay offense has been anemic most of the season, the total opened at 12 between these squads before settling at 11.5. The Rays Drew Smyly is not smiling much these days with 2-10 record and 5.47 ERA. The Rockies Tyler Anderson might only be 1-3, but has 3.03 ERA and has acquitted himself well. With Tampa Bay 13-4 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 in 2016 and the Rocks 15-6 OVER at home off a loss, we will go against the direction of number.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 127-125-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 111-95-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 237-221-2