Time to take a look at the happening in line moves today and we are back to our normal levels of activity. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (138-110, 55.6% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
MLB – (901) N.Y. METS at (902) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET WCAU, WPIX
Normally, if you have a matchup of basically unknown starting pitchers outside the fan bases, those betting baseball are not paying close attention. Yet the matchup of Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.34 ERA) of New York against Philadelphia’s Jerad Eickhoff (6-10, 3.80) has sent the total from 9 to 8.5. I can come up with five reasons to play Over, but when I consider the Phils and Eickhoff 13-4 UNDER against teams that average seven or more strikeouts a game, I will lean that direction.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
MLB – (915) TORONTO at (916) OAKLAND 4:05 ET RSN, CSN-CA
Toronto held a 7-4 lead last night but could not hold it and lost 8-7 to Oakland. As far a sports bettors are concerned, that is yesterday’s news and they have pushed the Blue Jays from -115 to -130 or higher depending on the sportsbook. This is primarily based on knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey (7-9, 3.78) being in better form than stunningly inaccordant Sonny Gray (3-8, 5.16). Dickey has an ERA of 3.20 over last eight starts while Gray could detonate at any time and be bombed. In truth, really do not like this AL encounter and will lean with visitor with A’s a flunking 4-11 in home games after scoring eight runs or more the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toronto
MLB – (925) KANSAS CITY at (926) DETROIT 7:10 ET FS1 (Regional)
Though Kansas City is rat dog ugly 16-31 on the road in 2016, at least today they have the support of baseball bettors and are up 20 cents to -135 at Detroit. The trust comes from Danny Duffy (4-1, 3.09), who has a 2.10 road ERA this season in five starts and a solid 3.13 ERA lifetime versus the Tigers in spite of 3-6 record. It has been a tough go for Mike Pelfrey (2-8, 5.17), however, some signs of improvement are evident with two total runs allowed in past two starts covering 12 1/3 innings. Another head-scratcher, but going against Duffy and K.C. as -110 or higher favorites (17-4) would not be prudent.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas City
MLB – (929) TEXAS at (930) CHIC. CUBS 2:20 ET FSSW, WLS (side and total)
Yu Darvish (2-0, 2.87) returns to the Texas rotation and the Rangers are hoping the left-hander can start building strength and remain healthy the rest of 2016. Darvish will take on the Cubs Jason Hammel (7-5, 3.46), who’s become notorious for send half fades. The betting action is on Texas, lowered from +130 to +115 or less. The total has also tumbled from 8.5 to 8 and even some books are now at 7.5. The Rangers have a long history of success versus NL pitchers with WHIP of 1.15 or less with 34-15 mark in last 19 years. With the wind out of the southeast today, balls to right field will be knocked down, but right-handed batters might get some carry to left and I will go against lower total and call for OVER action.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Cubs and 57% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins and Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 123-125-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 111-94-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 234-219-2