In looking over the numbers, it was rather quiet in the NBA early, but what caught my attention was huge line moves on totals in college basketball from games most people would not even look at, not being very familiar with the teams. Not sure if they will hold up but worth examining for now as sports bettors. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on nice 11-6 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CBB – (717) WILLIAM & MARY at (718) ELON 7:00 ET
Somebody is really paying attention to the Colonial as we have two significant total moves starting with this contest going from 163 to 158. For these large of shifts, either large wagers were placed or a group of bettors think the oddsmakers was way off. William and Mary has been all over the board of late, with the offense up and down and playing meager defense. Elon has been playing in much the same manner. All things considered, the opening number did seem high and with Elon 9-1 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more, we will support the steam.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (719) CHARLESTON at (720) NORTHEASTERN 7:00 ET
Many of you might not know that Charleston is amazing 17-5 UNDER this season and has gone below the oddsmakers figure seven straight times. So why would the total climb from 118.5 to 124? In the past three confrontations between these CAA rivals, the total has been anywhere from 117.5 to 124 and each time, including last month’s meeting, they ended up OVER the number. Charleston plays deliberate style with average score at 127.4 points a game. Northeastern is more in the mid 140′s and is the weaker defensive club, allowing 46.1 shooting percentage. Though the Crusaders are Under prone, the Huskies are 9-2 OVER when the total is 129.5 or less the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over
CBB – (767) GONZAGA at (768) SAN DIEGO 10:00 ET RSN Affil.
If you have seen Gonzaga’s last two televised games like yours truly, if Kyle Wiltjer is off his game like he was against SMU and St. Mary’s, the Bulldogs do not have the backcourt to offset his errant tosses. Nonetheless, San Diego does not play defense like those two clubs and this WCC total has been juiced from 129.5 to 133. The Toreros only score 59.9 PPG and in their last six against the Zags, they have tallied a feeble 52.3 PPG. With these squads 11-2 UNDER in SoCal, l am going against the trend.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CBB – (769) CS-FULLERTON at (770) CAL-POLY 10:00 ET
Our last stop is in the Big West with the two worst teams in the conference having a sinking total which is down four points to 144.5. Both these teams have been more stale then forgotten KFC chicken in the back of the refrigerator, with Fullerton averaging 65.6 PPG in their last five and Cal Poly at 69.0. Both clubs are weak enough defensively that each could reach their normal scoring averages in the low 70′s and in their meeting last month, Cal Poly won 83-75, surpassing the 151 closing total. Both schools have Under tendencies based on recent play, but I would feel more comfortable playing the lower score at original release.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 20-19
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 11-15-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 33-31-1