This will largely be our working format for weekends over the next several months for line moves, looking at certain games on Friday’s or the NBA Playoffs and Stanley Cup and baseball weekend series betting. Also, take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
NBA – (505) MIAMI at (506) ORLANDO 7:05 ET SUN, FSFL
The Heat are still fighting to secure a home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs and are tied with Boston for coveted No.4 position. Orlando could mess all that up as these rivals meet twice in the next three days. In the opener, sportsbooks have flipped Miami from -1 to +1 road underdogs, as many hoops bettors have been impressed the Magic have not thrown in the towel on season and are still competing. However, the Heat have won 14 of 20 versus the Magic, including seven in a row in Orlando (5-1-1 ATS), making them hard to bet against.
Betting Trend – 6% backing Orlando
Doug’s VPID Take - Miami covers
NBA – (515) MEMPHIS at (516) DALLAS 8:35 ET NBA-TV
With coach Rick Carlisle convincing his team they do not have the bodies to play up-tempo game, Dallas players listened to their coach and might make the playoffs because of it. The Mavericks have won five straight after losing 10 of 12 and have permitted just 86 points per contest in the process. With Dallas converting to this style, the total for their game with Memphis is down three points to 191.5. Though you could make a case for the lower score with Dallas 12-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season, these squads are 9-2 OVER in most recent meetings.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Slight lean Under
MLB – PITTSBURGH (-150) at CINCINNATI (+130) – Series Betting
Fresh off their sweep of St. Louis, Pittsburgh takes to the road against another division foe who is also feeling pretty good about themselves. Cincinnati swept Philadelphia at home thanks to two come from behind wins in the late innings. While the Reds might be home, in the first two games of the series they catch Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole, making it a tough assignment. Cincy is 12-7 the last two years at home versus the Pirates and could win series if they win the opener, but we do not see that happening.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Pittsburgh at -150
MLB – BOSTON (+130) at TORONTO (-150) – Series Betting
The Marcus Stroman vs. Joe Kelly matchup favors Toronto in series opener, however, after that, the only edge the Blue Jays have is playing at home. If the Boston bats continue to do the job, they will have definite chance and they have won 11 of 20 at the Rogers Centre in recent visits.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Boston at +130
MLB - HOUSTON (-150) at MILWAUKEE (+130) – Series Betting
These former NL Central teams clash in the second series of the year for both, which is now interleague action. You might think Houston should be a larger favorite, however, Scott Feldman and Doug Fister are not nearly as scary hurlers for the Astros as Sunday’s starter, Dallas Keuchel. Milwaukee’s combination of Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson are not going to remind anyone of the Braves Hall of Fame starters in the 90′s, yet they could make this competitive series, in which the Brew Crew falls just short.
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Houston at -150
NBA – Sunday (515) GOLDEN STATE at (516) SAN ANTONIO 7:05 ET NBA-TV
With Golden State expected to be resting players Saturday at Memphis, if they were to lose, do they go all out to just possibly share history with the Chicago Bulls or do their best given the circumstances? Having just beaten the Warriors a few weeks ago, do the Spurs really need to prove anything and does it matter if Golden State gets the record if San Antonio wins in the playoffs if they meet as expected? Need more information to make accurate assessment and this possible wager sure looks like game time decision.
Anticipated Line – San Antonio -1 to +1
Doug’s VPID Take - Wait and See
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 57-67
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 36-34-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 93-96-1