Crazy day for line moves in the NBA, as several teams are presumed to be resting players, which is really messing with the numbers. We believe we have one such game that is not true, plus three other baseball contests numbers on the move. Also, take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (507) NEW ORLEANS at (508) BOSTON 7:35 ET FSNO, CSNE
The Boston Celtics are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA at 105.7 points a game and New Orleans is tied for 24th in most points allowed at the same exact number, 105.7. Given the Celtics preference to play faster, the total has been elevated from 206 to 208.5. Whether this line move is correct or not would seem to fall on what the Pelicans put on the scoreboard. For the season, New Orleans is at 102.5 PPG, but since losing so many key players, in their last eight outings they are down to 95.6 PPG in that span. With the Pelicans/Hornets having not rung up more than 100 points in TD Garden in eight games, we will go against the move.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
MLB – (953) COLORADO at (954) ARIZONA 3:40 ET ROOT-NW, FSAZ (side and total)
In this matinee, bettors still not trusting Arizona and lowered them from -180 to -160 in series finale with Colorado. The Diamondbacks did need to rally to win 11-6 last night, but if Snakes starter Patrick Corbin continues how he pitched in spring training (1.71 ERA), Arizona should take the series. The total has crept up from 8.5 to 9 and why not, as these division rivals 32 runs in two contests and neither bullpen has shown flashes of being effective yet.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Arizona and 92% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Arizona wins and Over
MLB – (973) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (974) OAKLAND 10:05 ET ESPN2
Our Cactus League tour had us backing the White Sox on OVER for 80.5 wins on the season and so far so good with 2-0 start. Chicago will give the ball to Carlos Rodon, who went 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA over the final eight starts of his 2015 rookie season. Oakland’s Sonny Gray missed first assignment Monday with the flu and is ready to make first start, but has 8.10 ERA in two appearances against the White Sox. This has helped push the A’s from -145 to -130. It is not like Oakland is being pummeled with a pair of one run losses and I think they bounce back and salvage one game.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland
MLB – (975) DETROIT at (976) MIAMI 4:55 ET FSD, FSFL
Though Jose Fernandez was disappointed not to make opening day start, baseball bettors still have faith in the Miami ace and lifted the Marlins from -150 to -164 or higher in his season debut. For those that have forgotten, Fernandez is 17-0 in 26 starts at Marlins Park with a sterling 1.40 ERA. Coming off 6-1 season with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts after Tommy John surgery and 24 K’s in 18 1/3 spring innings, look for Miami to move to 24-3 in Fernandez’s home starts.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 56-60
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 33-30-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 87-91-1