While baseball started yesterday, this feels more like it on a Monday, kind of like the NFL Thursday game before the opening Sunday. We have three MLB line moves to discuss, but we did pass on San Francisco and Washington tumbling as large favorites because they are still large favorites. Also, have a NCAA basketball title to decide tonight and have that covered as well. Also, take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CBB – (601) VILLANOVA vs. (602) NORTH CAROLINA 9:19 ET TBS
The theory of large building affecting shooting eyes was blown out of the water Saturday in Final Four (unless you’re talking about Oklahoma), with a pair of Over’s. However, the total has sunk from 151 to 149.5 because of the defense both Villanova and North Carolina have been playing. Additionally, nerves and slightly more conservative approach goes into this thinking. With adjusted number, this system comes into play – Neutral court teams when the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games (Villanova), are 31-11 UNDER the past five years.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (955) PHILADELPHIA at (956) CINCINNATI 4:10 ET CSP, FSOH
Though neither of these teams might win 70 games on the season, baseball bettors clearly prefer Cincinnati to start with a victory. The Reds have gone from -140 to -160 and do have the better batting order compared to Philadelphia. The pitching matchup and bullpens are nothing to get excited about and let’s be honest, do you really want to back Cincinnati as this big a favorite? Best to pass or play the Phillies, just do so at your own risk.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Philadelphia
MLB – (967) BOSTON at (968) CLEVELAND 4:10 ET NESN, STO
With both these teams entering 2016 with high expectations, they start with fantastic pitching matchup of David Price vs. Corey Kluber. Boston opened as a -115 favorite and several sportsbooks ended up taking Cleveland to -110 or higher for a time and now it has been bouncing on either team from middle starting point of -105. Though the Indians won all six times over Boston at home last season, Price is 9-2 (team’s record 10-2) lifetime against the Tribe with 2.19 ERA, which sways me in that direction.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Boston
MLB – (971) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (972) OAKLAND 10:05 ET CSN-C, CSN-CA
The White Sox opened as a +115 road underdog with Chris Sale taking the ball for Chicago. I’m expecting the Pale Hose to be improved this season on offense and grabbed that number when it was released. Evidently I was not the only person thinking this and Chicago is now a -120 or larger favorite. Would not be shocked to see this money line come down, but not going to overlook Oakland was 16-32 versus lefty starters last season.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 52-60
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 32-29-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 84-87-1