Five big line moves on the board to breakdown and there were others. Did not see the point of looking into the Giants as rising favorite from -170 to -195. On the surface, Pittsburgh and Colorado total falling from 11 to 10 is noteworthy, but winds blowing in from center at 15-20 MPH, with higher gusts expected, has as much to do with alteration as the players. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are sizzling again at 29-20, to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.
NBA – (567) BOSTON at (568) ATLANTA 8:35 ET TNT
With the UNDER 3-1 with four totals all closing in the low 200′s, the sportsbooks opening total of 200 has been jettisoned to 198. Defense has been a big part of this series as the teams have combined to shoot under 41 percent five times among their eight chances in the series. With familiarity growing, it would seem this trend could continue with more physical play and adjustments. With Atlanta 11-2 UNDER at home in the postseason, hard to buck the thinking.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (951) PHILADELPHIA at (952) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET CSP, MASN
Fascinating pitching matchup in the NL East with presumed star in the making Vince Velasquez (2-1, 0.93 ERA) for Philadelphia against Washington’s ace Max Scherzer (2-1, 4.32), whose been roughed up a couple time. Whether the thought is Mad Max will still be off his game a little or the Nationals will get to Velasquez, the total is up from 6.5 to 7. Expect Nats hitters to be very selective to build up Velasquez’s pitch count and licking their chops to face Phillies bullpen which as 5.26 ERA. Washington is a -200 favorite and they are 17-6 OVER as a home favorite of -175 to -250 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play over
MLB – (967) OAKLAND at (968) DETROIT 7:10 ET CSN-CA, FSD (side and total)
Again today baseball bettors are all over this AL contest. Oakland appeared to be good play as an underdog yesterday, but the Tigers offense finally awoke from slumber in 7-3 win. I’m rather perplexed why the A’s have gone from -105 to -125. Granted, Mike Pelfrey (0-3, 3.68) has yet to win this season and has not posted a W going back 11 starts (0-7), but is Rich Hill (2-2, 3.32) for the Athletics that good an option on the road? The total is blossomed from 8.5 to 9, yet there are really negative trends to make one wonder about this line move. Hill is 10-1 UNDER versus an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse and Pelfrey is 9-0 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher since last season.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Detroit and 81% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Leans Detroit and Under
MLB – (979) BOSTON at (980) ATLANTA 7:10 ET NESN, FSSO
David Price (2-0,7.06) has disappointed so far with the Red Sox, but is taking on a team in Atlanta, that is literally punchless. The Braves at 3.2 runs per game is not big news, as plenty of teams the last several years have struggled to score. What makes Atlanta newsworthy is they have a higher on-base percentage (.300), than slugging percentage (.283), which I do not recall seeing this far in the season. With only THREE home runs for Atlanta, no wonder the total fell from 8 to 7. Boston won last night 1-0 and the Bravos are 24-7 UNDER after getting shutout since of late.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 72-76
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 51-43-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 119-119-1