Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for April 20th

April 20, 2016

The NBA has a pair of line moves to do with totals and let’s hope they lead to competitive games, after all the blowouts thus far. In baseball, one favorite is now an underdog and very publicly bet team is a diminishing home favorite and we will look into why. On the ice, Washington is down 20 cents to -155 at Philadelphia, as some are thinking the Flyers might not be swept. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are red hot again at 21-11, to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.

NBA – (527) CHARLOTTE at (528) MIAMI 7:05 ET  NBA-TV

Miami was the fourth-best shooting team in the NBA this season and is prone to outbursts like they had in Game 1, connecting on 57.6 percent of attempts in 123-91 massacre of Charlotte. The closing total of 198.5 was surpassed handily and oddsmakers adjusted the number upward to 203, but it has come down like Johnny Manziel’s football career, now at 198.5. The Heat average 103.7 points per game at home and in this series the OVER is a perfect 9-0 of late and I will not be bucking that trend.

Betting Trend – 50-50 Split

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NBA – (529) DETROIT at (530) CLEVELAND  8:05 ET TNT

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comDetroit coach Stan Van Gundy was complaining at first about LeBron James was getting too many calls. Go figure, a NBA superstar getting calls, that only goes back to George Mikan in the league (1946-47). Basketball bettors are also choosing to overlook obvious short term trends on totals from these combatants and lowered the total from 202 to 200. Five of the past six matchups between these clubs have resulted in OVER’s. The Pistons are on 4-1 OVER in past five, while the Cavaliers are 6-2 OVER since the start of the month. With LBJ getting so many calls and Detroit 17-8 OVER (+8.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season (average total score 211.8 points), I prefer the larger figure.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over

MLB – (927) WASHINGTON at (928) MIAMI 7:10 ET  MASN2, FSFL

In the third chapter of this four-game series, Washington with Joe Ross was a -110 road favorite, but by midday, Miami had assumed the role of favorite and was at -110 or higher against the Nationals. Tried to see if smoking-hot Bryce Harper might be sitting and cannot find anything and did not see where the Marlins traded for Mike Trout. Ross has been superb and allowed one run and eight hits in 14 2/3 innings while winning his first two starts. Contrast this with Wei-Yin Chen (5.56 ERA), who is 1-3 against Washington with 5.09 ERA. Keep a watchful on this line, because if it remains the same, the Nats are only 13-31 as an underdog of +100 or higher since last year.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Washington

MLB – (969) OAKLAND at (970) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  CSN-CA, YES

When the Yankees were at their best, nobody had more inflated lines and was still pounded heavily by baseball bettors. The glory days have passed for now and today New York still draws a lot of action, just not all of it positive. Tonight for example the Yanks started at -160 and are presently at -145 or lower, depending on the book. Starter Nathan Eovaldi’s (0-1, 6.94) ineffectiveness is part of the reason as is the fact the A’s Kendall Graveman (0-1, 2.38) has thrown well. Oakland has yet to lose in four road games to start 2016, however, the aging Bronx Bombers are 9-1 after scoring and allowing four runs or less in last three games.

Betting Trend – 83% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 67-75

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 46-38-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 111-109-1

 

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