We return to our weekend edition of line moves, taking in the NBA, Final Four and the start of the baseball season. Also, take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
NBA – (505) DALLAS at (506) DETROIT 7:35 ET FSSW, FSD
With the last two meetings falling to the Under side, the total has slid from 208 to 205.5. This would indicate bettors think Detroit will set the tone, as in their past five contests, the Pistons have fallen just short of 200 total points, while Dallas is at 213.8 in the same amount of games. I see this another way. Detroit has shot under 39 percent in last two tilts and should have no trouble finding more open looks and connecting versus Mavericks defense. Also, the Pistons are 12-4 OVER at home after playing a home game this season, with average total score 208.2.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NBA – (507) CLEVELAND at (508) ATLANTA 8:05 ET ESPN
Every article written about Cleveland finds one contradicting the next. The Cavaliers are vulnerable, they still have too much talent to not reach NBA Finals again and so it goes. As to what is the right answer, that will play out, but this we do know, Atlanta is the preferred choice tonight and has been bumped from -1 to -2.5. The Hawks are 14-4 and 13-5 ATS since Feb. 26 and have been more stable. Cleveland certainly has the talent to win this game but are they willing to but in the effort?
Betting Trend – 53% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
NBA – (517) BOSTON at (518) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET ESPN
Completely baffled why Golden State has dropped from -12 to -6 against Boston at home. I checked every team site and twitter handle looking for injuries for Warriors and found zilch. Sure Golden State is only 18-17-1 ATS at home despite 36-0 record, but this makes no sense, especially the betting trend. One thing to ponder, April Fools.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take - You have been had.
CBB – (811) VILLANOVA vs. (812) OKLAHOMA 6:09 ET TBS
Trusted college basketball expert Ken Pomeroy wrote this week teams have shot just 32.2 percent from beyond the 3-point arc in games played at NRG/Reliant Stadium since it opened in 2002, which is four percent lower than their average shooting average from that distance. Being in a spacious building without the usual backdrop could cause shooting percentages to tumble. In the 10 basketball games which have been played there the past six years, the participating teams have scored 123.6 points, compared to closing totals average of 136.2. With Villanova and Oklahoma more noted for three-point shooting, the total has collapsed from 149.5 to 145.5. Hard to argue with those kind of results, especially with how both have been playing defense.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (813) SYRACUSE at (814) NORTH CAROLINA 8:49 ET TBS
If the first game total would fall four points, why wouldn’t Syracuse and North Carolina do the same, instead of dipping just two to 145.5? Good question basketball bro and here is why. The Tar Heels are less dependent on the long distance shot and their big guys do more damage inside. Granted, they will not get quite as many good looks going up against the Syracuse zone, but North Carolina has faced the Orange twice this season and scored 84 and 75 points. With the Heels 9-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more in four straight games this season, I’ll back the original total.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Not expecting to see many line moves on the first four games on Sunday, but there will be some and here is what to look for. St. Louis opened as a -115 road favorite at Pittsburgh and that could be close to a Pick at game time…..The total on Toronto and Tampa Bay started at Ov7 (-115) and this could well turn to an Un7 by the first pitch…..The Chicago Cubs have not said for sure of Jake Arrieta is their starter, that is why we were waiting on line…..The New York Mets opened at -120 road favorites at Kansas City, but look for that to come down with bettors taking the World Series champs at home.
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 50-58
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 32-29-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 83-84-1