Quite a few NFL line moves early in the week and we have them all covered for you. Plus, a Poinsettia Bowl update and free pick. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (424-340 of late and now on 32-21 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – (105) MIAMI at (106) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Despite three straight OVER’s in this series and the two combatants a combined 21-7 OVER this season, the total has crumbled from 44 to 42. We don’t know the expected weather at this time but we do know Buffalo has scored and not played great defense at home and is 7-0 OVER in upstate New York. Not a Matt Moore fan but cannot ignore the numbers.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Over
NFL – (113) N.Y. JETS at (114) NEW ENGLAND 1:00 ET CBS
New England is 12-2 and 11-3 ATS and given the kind of year the Jets have had, the Patriots going from -14 to -16.5 should not come as a surprise. Before plunking down money on New England at least consider they are 1-7-1 ATS in recent contests with New York and are 0-6 ATS as division favorites of 12 or more.
Betting Trend – 66% backing New England
NFL – (115) TENNESSEE at (116) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Tennessee is fighting to win division title, while it is another lost season for Jacksonville with another new coaching regime coming in. With this combo pack, the Titans have been pushed from -3.5 to -5 and given Blake Bortles penchant for mistakes, hard to find fault. However, Tennessee is still 0-6 ATS off an upset win, so think it through.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Tennessee
NFL – (117) SAN DIEGO at (117) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Early reports have the revolving door at quarterback position continuing in Cleveland, who is so desperate for one win they would probably give away all draft picks for a couple years for Tom Brady. With this the total has been sent from 45.5 to 44. With San Diego on a 4-0 UNDER move and the Browns at 4-1 UNDER, this alteration has our vote.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Under
NFL – (123) ARIZONA at (124) SEATTLE 4:25 ET FOX
Seattle has won the NFC West and is intent on wrapping up No.2 seed in the conference and faces Arizona. The Cardinals are closing out a massively disappointing season and are not drawing much support in being pushed from +7 to +8.5. Maybe Arizona comes to play one last game, yet have 1-5 SU and ATS road record and that offensive line makes them hard to support.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Arizona
NFL – (127) BALTIMORE at (128) PITTSBURGH 4:30 ET NFLN
Pittsburgh is being given the benefit of the doubt and moved from -4 to -5 on this Christmas day clash. The line history might suggest otherwise with numerous field goal or less spreads, still, hard to not think about the Steelers defense is playing as well as Baltimore’s presently and Ben Roethlisberger is playing at home.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Baltimore
NFL – Monday – (131) DETROIT at (132) DALLAS 8:30 ET ESPN
The final Monday night game of the season has two NFC division leaders doing battle with a shifting total. This oddsmakers release of 41.5 has been altered to 44. While a convincing case could be made for this, Detroit is 8-0 UNDER in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points and Dallas is 12-3 UNDER after one or more consecutive ATS setbacks.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Over
BOWLS – Poinsettia – (217) BYU vs. (218) WYOMING 9:00 ET ESPN
With BYU 9-3 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the road, the Cougars are attracting a lot of attention and have been elevated from -8 to -10 over Wyoming. BYU is also the far more physical team with superior strength, however, they not as good as favorite (4-3 ATS) and the Cowboys were perfect 6-0 ATS as underdog. Update - BYU is gaining more support and is now up to -10.5, despite betting trends. With the totals 6-1 UNDER in bowl games thus far, the total has slipped from 59 to 57.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Wyoming and 84% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Wyoming covers and lean with Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 299-295-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 186-161-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 519-476-5