For line moves today, let’s get a couple things out of the way. A number of totals are sinking in the Midwest with several cities expecting 80 percent chance of snow showers. We will touch on those games with other information but not go into any detail on Seahawks/Packers down two points 44.5. Also, San Francisco shot up two points to -3 once it was announced Bryce Petty was going to be the starting QB for the Jets, that’s all you need to know.
Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (321-320 of late and now on 10-1 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL – (107) SAN DIEGO at (108) CAROLINA 1:00 ET CBS
With last week’s defeats, both these team’s seasons are over and professional pride has to kick in for the last quarter of the campaign. Bettors are seeing less offense than the linemakers and lowered the total from 49.5 to 48. This is at least a mild surprise with San Diego’s offensive capabilities going up against Carolina’s 30th ranked pass defense and the Chargers having a 8-4 OVER mark. If Cam Newton decides to wear a tie to game, he will get the start and with the season a complete failure, maybe he can start having fun again. When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, teams like San Diego who average 27 or more PPG, against a defensive allowing 23-27 PPG, after conceding seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests, they are 29-8 OVER. Update – Something we have not seen a lot on line moves this season is reversals. We did in this game however, with all sportsbooks at either 49 or 49.5.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (111) CINCINNATI at (112) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS *New* Total
For Cleveland, this is their golden opportunity to end a season’s worth of frustration. They are home against division opponent , coming off a bye week to get healthier and more importantly step away from football during a 0-12 season (2-10 ATS) to come back rejuvenated and ready to earn their first win over injury-riddled in Cincinnati. The wagering public is not buying it and moved the Bengals from -5 to -6. With the Browns 0-6 ATS versus teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game, hard to consider them, but let’s play a hunch. Update – Since Friday, Cincinnati settled in at -5.5, but because of expected weather, the total went from 44-41.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
NFL – (113) PITTSBURGH at (114) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS *New* (side and total)
It is starting to feel like the perception on Pittsburgh is changing and it shows here with the Steelers on the rise from -1 to -3 at Buffalo. Coach Mike Tomlin’s offense has gone to more balanced attack, with better mix of run and pass and the defense has really made strides. With Tyrod Taylor an inaccordant passer, hard to disagree. Total has drifted down like the expected snowflakes from 47.5 to 46.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Pittsburgh and 53% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Pittsburgh and Under
NFL – (115) ARIZONA at (116) MIAMI 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
Arizona finally got off the mat and showed some gumption in defeating Washington, while Miami played like Cleveland in having six-game winning streak stopped in decisive fashion in Baltimore. The Cardinals are still talented and alarming blowouts like the Dolphins suffered are thought to be warning signs and Miami has slipped from -2.5 to -1. The total has also come down a point to 43, with both offenses capable of taking potential points off the board with miscues. Each team has strong negative trends coming into this clash. Update – On Thursday, the Cardinals flew all the way to -2. Late Saturday afternoon, that line movement was showing weakness with a few books having moved Arizona to -1 or -1.5 and would not be surprised to see more books follow. The total went to 43.5 on Thursday and stayed there.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Arizona and 72% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona cover and Over
NFL – (117) CHICAGO at (118) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
Detroit can take next step towards division title with a victory over Chicago. For really the first time this season, the Lions are expected to win with no string attached and opened as -9.5 point favorites. However, not everyone is convinced Detroit is that good, even against a Chicago team with third-stringer Matt Barkley at the controls and the home team has come down to -8. Still, this is Barkley’s first road start for the Bears and Detroit can see the finish line. Update – Detroit was as low as -7 on Friday, seemingly making them a pretty good value, but they are creeping back up to -7.5 or -8.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit covers
NFL – (123) WASHINGTON at (124) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Once this NFC East total was released midweek, Washington went up like it was shot out of cannon from a Pick to -2. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU and ATS since 3-0 start, they have few real offensive threats and their once sound defense has permitted 287 yards passing in last three games and they have to take on the NFL’s No.2 pass offense in Washington. Enough said.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington covers
NFL – (129) ATLANTA at (130) LOS ANGELES 4:25 ET FOX
Not sure if the total falling from 46 to 45 is a function of the Rams defense or offense. If Los Angeles and Jared Goff are going to have offensive success, Atlanta would to be the right opponent with 27th rated defense. Not sure if the Rams defense is not wearing down from carrying all the pressure this whole season, after permitting 75 points and 957 yards in the past two contests and having to take on the NFL’s top scoring offense in the Falcons. With Atlanta at 10-2 OVER, hard to go against that number. Update – About one third of the sportsbooks have gone even lower to 44.5. Falcons offense and defense leads to going the other way.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (19-20 record) – Steelers, Bengals and Redskins
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (25-14 record) – Vikings/ Jaguars UNDER, Jets/49ers UNDER and Seahawks/Packers Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 292-281-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 180-153-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 501-457-5