After a pretty quiet start to the week, there has been an avalanche of line moves since Wednesday and we have them all for you to consider. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (384-309 of late) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL – (351) DENVER at (352) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
After a quiet start early, the total began to fall in this AFC encounter, down two digits to 41. No question the Denver defense is capable of limiting what Jacksonville can do and despite the 27 points the Broncos tallied on Kansas City, they are not considered an explosive team. The hard part to figure is Jacksonville turnovers, which could make any total a tough call. The Jaguars are 6-0 OVER against teams scoring 24 or more points. Update – With Trevor Siemian officially out, the total is all the way down to 39. A real tough call.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Over
NFL – (353) KANSAS CITY at (354) ATLANTA 1:00 ET CBS *New*
Sharps and the public have gotten all over this one, with Atlanta up from -4 to -6. The logic makes perfect sense with Kansas City off huge win over Denver , but having to play almost five quarters to do so and having quick turnaround and having to host Oakland this Thursday. Besides the tough scheduling spot, the Chiefs are also 5-17 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt. If Falcons bring same enthusiasm as last week, they should cover.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Atlanta covers
NFL – (357) PHILADELPHIA at (358) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Thought it was strange Philadelphia opened as 1.5 point road favorite at Cincinnati, who is struggling this season and does not have all their weapons on offense. But frankly, who is Philadelphia at 2-6 SU and ATS since 3-0 start and not having really any dependable receivers. The adjustment was made and the Bengals are now a 1.5-point favorite. Here is a weird angle to this contest which not played very often, Cincy is 9-0 ATS over the Eagles.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
NFL – (359) DETROIT at (360) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX
Though Detroit is in first place and there is clamoring for Matthew Stafford to be given MVP consideration, the Lions have been lifted from +4 to +6 at New Orleans. How Drew Brees and Saints play at home is being given strong consideration and Detroit is 24th in yards per pass attempt. With a high total, just remember the Lions are 6-0 ATS when the total is 49.5 or higher. Update – On Thursday and Friday, the Saints marched to -6.5, before settling back to -6 the next day. Like Detroit because they give themselves a chance.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit covers
NFL – (361) SAN FRANCISCO at (362) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX *New*
It sure seems odd that San Francisco would go from +1 to -2 against anyone, yet they have against the Bears. In truth, Colin Kaepernick is not playing that bad and would have even better numbers except for so many dropped passes. Kaepernick also gets the edge over Matt Barkley at QB and Chicago has been abysmal 11-23-2 ATS at home since 2012. However, cannot take the Niners and Da Bears are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive losses the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 58% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – The slightest of leans with Chicago
NFL – (363) LOS ANGELES at (364) NEW ENGLAND 1:00 ET FOX
The total in this nonconference clash is tumbling from 46 to 44.5. Rookie Jared Goff showed more aplomb last week in defeat, but trying to read keys against New England’s defense is quite different. Plus, the Los Angeles defense was totally embarrassed last week and whatever is wrong with Tom Brady’s knee has him not driving throws, which all could make for lower score. Update – Roughly 75 percent of the books went even lower, taking the total to 44, with Rob Gronkowski officially done. Agree.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (371) WASHINGTON at (372) ARIZONA 4:25 ET FOX *New*
The total in this NFC encounter is down two points to 48.5. That is interesting line movement with Washington 9-2 OVER, yet Arizona is 6-0 UNDER when playing at home. Going to back this up and found this: When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in December and a team like the Cardinals has lost against the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, the UNDER is 33-9.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (373) N.Y. GIANTS at (374) PITTSBURGH 4:25 ET FOX
The wagering public is not all the impressed with the New York Giants and still sees Pittsburgh as an AFC threat and moved the Steelers from -4.5 to -6. While the Giants have not faced the best the NFL has to offer in winning six straight, Pittsburgh ended four-game losing streak against the Browns and Colts, without Andrew Luck. G-Men are 6-0 ATS versus the AFC. Update – Starting to find a few sportsbooks creep up to 6.5 and would not be shocked if more followed suit on closer to game time. Like that Giants hang around.
Betting Trend – 58% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York covers
NFL – Monday – (377) INDIANAPOLIS at (378) N.Y. JETS 8:30 ET ESPN *New*
Though it was not official until Saturday, it was no secret that Andrew Luck was going to play for Indianapolis and they were shoved from a Pick to -1.5. Luck has very good pass catchers and the Jets are 22nd in pass defense. This appears right and I’m no fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but have a feeling Gang Green comes through and they are 19-5 ATS at home off a home loss.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Indianapolis
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean N.Y. Jets
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (16-20 record) – Packers, Broncos and Lions
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (23-13 record) – Colts/Jets OVER, Bucs/Chargers OVER and Eagles/Bengals Under