NFL Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 12

November 27, 2016

For line moves this Sunday, a lot of late games mobility to look at. This plus the contests from earlier in the week we covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (376-292 of late and recent 159-119 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

NFL –  (251) SAN DIEGO at (252) HOUSTON 1:00 ET  CBS

Understand records are not everything, but San Diego flipped from +1 to -2 at Houston is newsworthy. While it is true San Diego is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS against Houston, backing the Chargers takes courage, as they are 4-13 SU in games decided by seven or less points. One also has to think about the Texans being 5-0 (4-0-1 ATS) at home this season and 12-3 ATS against losing teams. UpdateSan Diego is building as a favorite, up to -2.5 or -3. Not seeing it with Houston at home and the Chargers pension for critical mistakes.

Betting Trend – 65% backing San Diego

Doug’s VPID Take – Houston covers

NFL – (253) TENNESSEE at (254) CHICAGO 1:00 ET  CBS  (side and total)

Tennessee squandered a great opportunity in not being ready to play against a team they had lost 10 straight to Indianapolis and once again has to pick up the mess they created. The wagering public liked their chances to do so in the Windy City and sent the Titans from -2 to -3.5, before the news that Jay Cutler is ‘out’ and Matt Barkley win be under center for Chicago and the Bears went to +4.5. This also impacted the total which fell from 45.5 to 42. Still, backing Tennessee with 2-9 ATS record versus losing teams has to be thought-provoking. UpdateTotal has remained the same, with the Titans still climbing at the way to -6. Tennessee should be good, but can you trust them?

Betting Trend – 93% backing Tennessee and 77% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Leans Tennessee and Over

NFL – (255) JACKSONVILLE at (256) BUFFALO 1:00 ET  CBS

With LeSean McCoy a question mark and receivers Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins not expected to play, that places a great deal on QB Tyrod Taylor to come through and lead the Buffalo offense. There are quite a few skeptics about that happening and the total has fallen from 47 to 45. It would appear the only way this AFC contest goes over is more Blake Bortles Pick 6′s. UpdateNot has not budged since Tuesday and it makes perfect sense given the circumstances.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL –  (257) CINCINNATI at (258) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET  CBS

With no A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, the Bengals lost season could go further south and they have been elevated from +3 to +4.5 at Baltimore. In spite of the loss of valuable personnel, Cincinnati should at least have confidence, having knocked off the Ravens five consecutive times and are 29-15 ATS in road games in Weeks 10 through 13. UpdateA bit of an erosion on Baltimore, down to -4 and at a couple of sharper off-shore books that attract sharper action, -3.5 is showing up. Ravens not great but have enough here.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Baltimore

Doug’s VPID Take - Baltimore covers

NFL –  (261) SAN FRANCISCO at (262) MIAMI 1:00 ET  FOX

With the Miami defense improving and San Francisco’s doing the same, the total has been tumbling from 46.5 to 44.5. The 49ers lack of scoring also plays into the mix. Here are couple long term angles that fit into this, with the Dolphins 30-16 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog and the Fins 42-21 UNDER in home games after allowing 14 points or less. UpdateA good-sized buyback to 45.5 almost across the board. Miami moves the ball and adds up the points.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NFL –  (267) SEATTLE at (268) TAMPA BAY 4:05 ET  FOX

With the Seattle Express picking up steam, bettors are jumping on board and have sent the Seahawks from -4.5 to -6. That is not the only aspect for the line movement, with Tampa Bay being dreadful 6-15 against the spread at home since 2014 also an important factor. Betting public loves Seattle early. UpdateNo changes, but betting public firmly behind what looks to be a fast improving Seattle bunch.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle

NFL –  (269) CAROLINA at (270) OAKLAND 4:25 ET  CBS   *New*

Though Oakland is 8-2, they are 29th in total defense and permit 24.3 PPG. When you are in their scoring prowess, bettors have sent the total from 48 to 49.5. While it is easy to look at the Raiders at 8-2 Over, Carolina arrives with interesting number and is 13-0 UNDER off a win by three points or less over a division rival. Can see this coming in lower.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under

NFL –  (271) KANSAS CITY at (272) DENVER 8:30 ET  NBC   *New*

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		This total has been roaming around, starting at 40.5, falling as low at 38.5 and latest peek has it as 39. These are two offenses that are not getting the job done and are not explosive versus two defenses which do not allow many points. With Kansas City 8-2 UNDER and Denver 9-2 UNDER at home off a road game, prefer the lower score.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL –  (273) NEW ENGLAND at (274) N.Y. JETS  4:25 ET  CBS   *New* (side and total)

With Tom Brady missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday and being limited on Friday, New England has dropped from -9 to -7.5 and the total has sunk two points to 46. Ultimately, Brady is expected to play, but with gusty winds expected and New York 5-0-1 ATS recently against the Patriots, there is support. For the Jets in lost season, this is the playoff game, but will Ryan Fitzpatrick make critical mistakes again?

Betting Trend – 79% backing New England and 78% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New England and Over

 

Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (15-18 record) – Titans, Giants and Patriots

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (23-10 record) – Seahawks/Buccaneers OVER, Chargers/Texans OVER and Patriots/Jets Over

Leave a Comment