Time for first full weekend of NFL football and as expected, we are seeing more line moves as the week progress. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (216-174 of late), when posted, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL – (455) MINNESOTA at (456) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET CBS *New*
With the announcement of Shaun Hill as starting quarterback, the total has fallen from 42 to 40. Interesting the side action has not changed, still with Minnesota at -2.5 or -3, having third different anticipated quarterback. The lower total matters if you like the UNDER from the start, but with the Vikings defense and last year being 9-2 UNDER in games when the line is +3 to -3, see more of the same.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (459) CINCINNATI at (460) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
This noteworthy AFC contest opened as a Pick and since Cincinnati, the road team is up to -2.5. This is a large move on an away team. What bettors see is a more complete team in the Bengals, arguably the best roster in the NFL. While the Jets certainly have ability, there is wonderment about Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off career year and does he have next gear to lift New York ever higher? Cincy is on 11-2 ATS run on the road and looks strong. Update – Most sportsbooks checked are at -2.5 or -2 on Cincinnati, but I did see one respected book at -1 and you might see late surge on Jets.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean New York
NFL – (461) OAKLAND at (462) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET CBS *New*
With Oakland and New Orleans pass defense ranked 26th and 31st respectively last year, the feeling going into this contest is that points would be plentiful and that feeling has been backed further with total rising from 50to 52 or higher at some sportsbooks. I generally agree, but total is getting up there for my taste.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (469) GREEN BAY at (470) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET FOX
Green Bay was released as four-point favorite at Jacksonville and has been steadily climbing to -5.5 in the past two weeks. The Jaguars have largely looked the same in the preseason and the Packers while not showing much are being given the benefit of the doubt they are still an elite NFC club. Would not recommend playing Green Bay at higher price but Jacksonville being 5-12-1 ATS as home underdog and 1-11 ATS versus the NFC matters. Update – Even thought the bet percentage has stayed the same all week, the Green Bay is going backwards to -4.5 or -5. Given Jags track record in these type of games, only more value on the Pack.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Green Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Green Bay covers
NFL – (471) MIAMI at (472) SEATTLE 4:05 ET CBS (side and total)
Evidently the Seattle defense is going to lock down new Miami pass offense which places premium on quarterback throwing ball quickly and the Seahawks will be running the ball effectively to shorten the game. Seattle has blown up from -7.5 to -10.5 and the total has sunk from 49 to 44. That is a lot of points for the Seahawks to be surrendering in Week 1, especially since the Dolphins are 26-13-2 ATS a non-division road underdog since 2006. Seattle is 18-8 OVER out of conference. Update – Both the side and total have been largely unchanged, however, the betting on the side has been even all week, with favorite players backing the home team and value bettors finding points to tempting. I agree with latter.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Miami and 65% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami and Over
NFL – (475) DETROIT at (460) INDIANAPOLIS 4:25 ET FOX *New*
Indianapolis opened at -5 this summer, but in the last week they have steadily come down to -3. My belief is football bettors just figured out the Colts have similar weaknesses to Detroit and secondary that is beatable. I think the Lions defense is better and an outright upset for my money is very possible.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Indianapolis
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit covers
NFL – Monday – (481) LOS ANGELES at (482) SAN FRANCISCO 10:20 ET ESPN
Gosh, hard to believe the total in this game fell from 46 to 44 considering the Rams were 29th in scoring last year and the 49ers were 32nd and the starting quarterbacks are expected to be Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert. Or maybe it is no surprise at all since St.L/L.A. was 12-4 UNDER last year and San Francisco is 6-0 UNDER at home against division foes the past two years. Update – Continued erosion on the total, all the way to 42.5. With these quarterbacks and lack of perimeter playmakers, very possible.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) – Packers, Giants and Bengals
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) – Pats/Cards UNDER, Giants/Cowboys OVER, Bears/Texans UNDER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 183-161-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 141-114-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 315-288-3