We are all over the latest NFL line moves going into today for both Sunday and Monday and share our expertise. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (299-242 of late and recent 84-67 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL - (455) NEW ORLEANS at (456) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET FOX
With how the New Orleans offense and defense is playing, little wonder the total jumped from 49 to 50.5. In spite of this, I’ll go the other way, as the Saints offense for years is never as potent outdoors and this season scored 13 points at the Giants and were sitting at 21 at San Diego late in fourth quarter before two gift turnovers helped them reach 35. Expect Kansas City to control tempo. Update – Pretty much the total has remained the same with only a couple sportsbook up to 51. If you read what this before, you know where I am going!
Betting Trend – 59% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Under
NFL – (457) WASHINGTON at (458) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
The history of this NFC contest suggests a lower score with the UNDER 8-2 and sportsbooks adjusted number lines down with that thinking, with the total dropped from 51 to 49. Yet, the two teams are a combined 9-3 OVER, with Washington 10-2 OVER off an upset victory and Detroit 8-0 OVER versus conference rivals the last couple years. Put me down for the other side. Update – This total has been climbing, not dramatically but going up nevertheless to 49.5 or 50. Look for points.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (461) BUFFALO at (462) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
In this AFC East encounter, we have seen an erosion on the total, down from 45.5 to 44. In reviewing the team trends it would seem this totals outcome will be determined by who controls the action. If Buffalo plays there game, we should see an OVER, if Miami plays at their pace, the UNDER is likely outcome. Update – Very little change on this total across the board with the market satisfied. Got a sneaky feeling we could see points.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Over
NFL – (463) OAKLAND at (464) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS *New*
Found it a little puzzling this total sunk from 50 to 47.5. Here is why, if you are of the opinion Oakland will continue to play well on the road, the average total score when they are an away underdog is 53.8 PPG the last two years. With Jacksonville only a one-point favorite and even with adjusted total, the Jaguars are 10-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (469) SAN DIEGO at (470) ATLANTA 4:05 ET FOX
With two smoldering offenses and two defenses which do give up points, nobody is surprised to see the total rise from 51.5 to 53.5. The logic is in place, yet I beg to differ. With Atlanta not finishing off Seattle, they are 8-1 UNDER off a road loss. Also, the Falcons are 13-3 UNDER when facing teams with a losing record. Update – Nobody stopping this total yet, now sitting at 54.5 or 55 depending on the book. I’m going strictly the opposite here, thinking we are going too high.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (471) TAMPA BAY at (472) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET FOX *New*
With no Carlos Hyde and Tampa Bay rested after a bye week, not sure I understand why San Francisco would go from +2.5 to +1.5. Nothing jumps off the page, so let me at least make their case. The 49ers are desperate to win a game and Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers are -5 in turnover margin. OK, made my case, can I go back to what I think?
Betting Trend – 51% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take - Tampa Bay covers
NFL – (475) SEATTLE at (476) ARIZONA 8:30 ET NBC *New*
Carson Palmer has been upgraded to ‘Probable’ but his lack of mobility is still an issue. Bottom line, at this time football bettors trust Seattle more than do Arizona and who can blame them with the Cardinals 1-12 ATS after allowing 10 or fewer points in last outing.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
NFL – Monday – (477) HOUSTON at (478) DENVER 8:30 ET ESPN
Coming off a pair of losses, many are presuming the Denver will be spitting bullets and be extremely fired up for Houston and shoved the Broncos from -6 to -7.5. Denver will also have shot at former QB Brock Osweiler, who led outstanding comeback win over Indianapolis. Concerns for the Texans are 1-7 ATS on Monday’s and scoring 6.5 PPG on the road. Update – This side is all over the place with sharp offshore books on the Broncos at -9 or -9.5 and the rest at -8.5. Not going to disagree off two Denver defeats, but not sure about all those points.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Denver
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (6-12 record) – Patriots, Vikings and Raiders
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (10-8 record) – Redskins/Lions OVER, Giants/Rams OVER and Raiders/Jaguars OVER