NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 4

October 2, 2016

Holy cow, the line moves have been coming fast and furious and we have each one covered with a ton of info.Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (258-205 of late and recent 42-31 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

NFL – (251) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (252) JACKSONVILLE 9:30am ET  CBS

Bright and early for Colts and Jaguars fans for this across the pond divisional clash in London. The money is following Indianapolis, who has been altered from -1 to -2.5. While this does make perfect sense, the talent difference is not significant and Jacksonville takes advantage of Indy’s defense and maybe saves their coach’s job for now. UpdateOn Saturday, a universal buyback with Indianapolis down to -2 and according indicators we have from sharps, the Jaguars could be attracting even more action, we agree.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Indianapolis

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Jacksonville

NFL – (253) CLEVELAND at (254) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET  CBS  *New Info*

Thought Cleveland has yet to win a game, they should have beaten Miami last week. Those betting are not enamored with what they have seen from Washington and believed they were way to large a favorite against the Browns at -10 and were sent two points lower to -8. Hard to argue with that thinking since the Redskins are 20-44 ATS at home playing against a team with a losing record the last 34 years. UpdateAs of Thursday, the Browns fell even further to +7.5. Though Cleveland is hardly loaded, it has been seven years since Washington wad this large a favorite. The total has been jumped from 45.5 to 47 or 47.5 depending on the sportsbook.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Cleveland and 76% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Cleveland covers and Lean Over

NFL – (253) SEATTLE at (254) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET FOX  *New*

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	Though Russell Wilson has been listed as ‘probable’ bettors are expecting his mobility to be limited. With how the Seattle offensive line has played, the Jets defensive front should have success and the Seahawks are doing down the depth chart to find healthy running backs. Seattle leads the NFL in total defense, thus the total has fallen from 41 to 39.5. Both teams with several injuries, have to agree.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON 1:00 ET  CBS  *New Info*

With two offenses averaging 14 points a game, it is not going out on limb to believe this could be lower scoring game and the total is down a digit from 41 to 40. Just keep in mind nine of the 14 games played in Houston have been OVER’s and Tennessee is 27-13 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half of consecutive contests. UpdateThis total has been dancing around like Beyonce during a concert, going back up to 41, before settling at 40.5. I have system that win over 85+ percent of the time that says the OVER is the right call. Also, with the news J.J. Watt is out, the Texans tumbled from 6.5 to 4.5 almost immediately.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Over and 68% on Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over and Houston covers

NFL – (273) LOS ANGELES at (274) ARIZONA 4:25 ET  FOX

The Rams are tied for first and the Cardinals are tied for last in the NFC West. Welcome to the NFL! Oddmakers made Arizona a 9.5 point favorite but quicker than a coyote howling after dark, the Cards have been lowered to 8.5 and by Wednesday to -8. It all boils down to Carson Palmer and pass protection to pick a winner and Arizona is 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. UpdateA couple books have moved back to 8.5, but by and large not enough trust on the Cardinals.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Los Angeles

NFL – (275) KANSAS CITY at (276) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET  NBC

Kansas City picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times last week and Ben Roethlisberger was systematically picked apart by Philadelphia defense this past Sunday. Evidently the Steelers are expected to bounce back and have been elevated from -4 to -5.5 over the Chiefs. Pittsburgh is rock solid 14-4 ATS after permitting 30 or more points. UpdateHave to admit to being shocked to seeing the Steelers back at -4. Andy Reid does bring positives but so does Le’Veon Bell for Pittsburgh.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Pittsburgh

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pittsburgh

NFL – Monday - (277) N.Y.GIANTS at (278) MINNESOTA 8:30 ET  ESPN  *New Info*

Initially, when this contest was released, nothing much happened but over night on Tuesday going to Wednesday morning, Minnesota was up a point from -3.5 to -4.5. Though the Vikings are 31st in total offense, they are 6th in total defense, third in fewest points allowed (13.3) and No. 1 in sacks with 15. With the Giants weaknesses in the offensive line and the Vikes 17-3 ATS since last season, this does make sense. UpdateMinnesota went as high as -5 before settling back. Does the G-Men being 7-1 ATS after Redskins game matter? We will find out. The total slipped from 44 to 42.5. Hard to find fault.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Minnesota and 66% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean New York sand Lean Under

 

Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (2-7 record) – Denver, Detroit and Cleveland

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (4-5 record) – Cleve./Wash. OVER, Tenn./Hou. OVER and N.O./S.D. OVER

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 205-180-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 146-116-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 358-317-3

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