Time to take a look at the NFL line moves for Week 6. Seeing today was the start of the NHL season, we wanted to add one game, but no line moves of note. However, tonight’s college football game total has been altered we have that covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (284-224 of late and recent 69-50 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back tomorrow.
NFL – (259) JACKSONVILLE at (260) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS
While there is not much to like about either of these teams, there has been enough meaningful money on Chicago to lift the Bears from -1.5 to -2.5. Talent-wise these two are pretty even and Chicago has been a rather lousy home team for awhile, nevertheless, impossible to ignore Jacksonville is 1-12 ATS taking on NFC teams since 2012.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Jacksonville
NFL - (261) SAN FRANCISCO at (262) BUFFALO 1:00 ET FOX
In this nonconference clash, the total has dived from 45.5 to 44. I believe with how the Buffalo defense is performing and the quarterback situation in San Francisco, there are doubts about how many points could be tallied. Nevertheless, you have to consider Buffalo is 16-4 OVER at home versus teams averaging 175 or less passing yards per game.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
NFL – (265) CLEVELAND at (266) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET FOX
Cody Kessler is expected back quarterback and Josh McCown might be available for Cleveland, but football bettors are undeterred and have moved the Browns from +6 to +7.5. I’m having a hard time thinking Tennessee should be this large a favorite against the Volunteers, let alone a professional team. Will not ignore the Titans are 2-10 ATS in last 12 outings.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Tennessee
NFL – (267) PHILADELPHIA at (268) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
Philadelphia’s first loss has not changed the minds of enough bettors and the Eagles were switched from +1.5 to -2.5. Not certain this will hold up all week, but it does speak to what Doug Pederson is doing in Philly as coach, along with rookie QB Carson Wentz. The total has also crumbled from 46 to 44.5, which I’m less sure about.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Philadelphia and 93% on Over
NFL – (269) KANSAS CITY at (270) OAKLAND 4:05 ET CBS
This is a benchmark game for both these AFC West rivals, which could point what direction they head the rest of the season. Early interest has been on the total, starting at 48 and slipping to 47 or even 46.5. That would seem to dictate bettors prefer Kansas City on the side, with Oakland already 4-1 OVER and having a the NFL’s worst defense. Raiders are 10-2 OVER recently vs. the AFC.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
CFB – (101) APPALACHIAN STATE at (102) UL-LAFAYETTE 8:00 ET ESPN2
This Hump Day Sun Belt special has seen the total really slide from 52 to 48.5. Upon close inspection, here is why. Appalachian State is scoring 23.2 PPG, but they teams they have faced are allowing 25.3 PPG. UL-Lafayette has less of a differential, being at 27.6 PPG vs. 28.2 permitted, yet is still below average. My game estimator has the UNDER being the right side 70 percent of the time in 500 simulations and will follow the money.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 224-195-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 152-120-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 380-338-3