On this Thursday we have a whole lot of action, including football and the NBA. Besides line moves in the NFL tonight, we have the latest for Sunday also. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (311-249 of late and recent 96-75 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CFB –Thursday- (105) AKRON at (106) BUFFALO U. 7:30 ET W-ESPN *New Total
With Buffalo having a rough year at 1-6 (2-5 ATS) and being outscored by 18.5 PPG, bettors have little faith in the Bulls and elevated them from +14.5 to +17.5 at home against Akron. While this seems like a lot of point on the Zips, I have system going against Buffalo that is 26-6 ATS, where teams like them lose by 25.5 PPG on average. Update – Akron has remained a -17.5 point favorite, however, in recent days the total has plummeted with a 40 percent chance of rain. A couple not see easy calls but I will follow the direction of line moves.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Akron and 90& on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Akron and Under
CFB –Thursday- (111) CALIFORNIA at (112) USC 10:30 ET ESPN
For this Pac-12 contest, USC is expected to keep scoring and they have risen from -14 to -16.5 and even now -20 over California. It is a given to think the Golden Bears are not going to stop the Trojans, but not sure the Men of Troy will have much success on defense either. With USC 1-8 ATS having won three out of their last four games the last three seasons, I’ll grab the points. The latest line move has to be driven by syndicate or sharp money.
Betting Trend – 65% backing California
Doug’s VPID Take – California covers
NFL – Thursday - (101) JACKSONVILLE at (102) TENNESSEE 8:25 ET NFLN
Evidently, this game is in such high demand it is being played again on a Thursday, 49 weeks later. Last year’s AFC South extravaganza was a barnburner with Jacksonville winning at home 19-13. The public is thinking points could be hard to find again and dropped the total from 46.5 to 44.5 on Tuesday morning and now down 43.5. Though both teams have OVER tendencies coming in, agreeing with line movement.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (503) BOSTON at (504) CHICAGO 8:00 ET TNT
This is the remade Chicago Bulls new team playing in opener. With Boston having played last night, Chicago has been flipped from +1 to -1.5 tonight. The Celtics have not been bothered by contests on consecutive nights with 25-11 ATS record when playing on back-to-back days. I also have something I have profited on for years in the first few weeks of the NBA season and that is playing against home favorites of less than three points, since the oddsmakers are telling us they are not good enough to be standard home favorite.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston covers
NFL – (251) WASHINGTON vs. (252) CINCINNATI 9:30am ET FOX
Another London game (yawn) and this one has Cincinnati bumped up from -2 to -3 over Washington. The Redskins have the better record and the Bengals are only 2-4-1 ATS, yet oddsmakers are looking at the talent of the two squads and prefer Cincinnati. This does not mean Cincy covers, however, these Cats are 9-2 ATS away after gaining 450 or more yards.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Cincinnati
NFL – (259) NEW ENGLAND at (260) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Somebody is smelling a strong scent in the air and it has to do with revenge. With Tom Brady back and New England having suffered stinging 16-0 home loss to Buffalo, the public consensus is the Patriots will not be satisfied with just a win, but seeking more and they have been sent from -5.5 to -6.5. The Pats are 19-8 ATS away playing with home revenge.
Betting Trend – 79% backing New England
NFL – (261) N.Y. JETS at (262) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
No, the reason the Jets has sunk from -4.5 to -3 over winless Cleveland is not because Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as Gang Green’s QB. (Though it would be a good reason) Rather, it is the plethora of New York injuries and the Browns getting back QB 2.0, Josh McCown from injury, who is now upgraded to ‘Probable’.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Cleveland
NFL – (263) OAKLAND at (264) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET CBS
Despite Oakland 10-2 ATS on the road the last two years and 8-0 ATS a away underdogs, the Raiders are up to +1.5 from a Pick at Tampa Bay. Back to back games in Florida is noteworthy to that line of thinking and the Buccaneers are off 2-0 road trip as underdogs. Nonetheless, the Bucs are winless at home and Oakland is 4-0 ATS on the road.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Oakland
NFL – (267) SAN DIEGO at (268) DENVER 4:05 ET CBS
I did a video this week and was mocked for taking San Diego at +6.5 because Denver is in big revenge spot, having lost to the Chargers on what will be 17 days ago on Sunday. However, I was not the only person liking how San Diego is playing offensively, while still having questions about the Broncos offense and the Bolts are now sitting at +5.5.
Betting Trend – 61% backing San Diego
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 239-221-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 159-127-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 404-369-3