Championship Week starts in earnest this week in college basketball with the regular season complete and we have the latest time moves on a couple of title games tonight plus the biggest line moves in the NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (8-5 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA - (501) NEW YORK at (502) ORLANDO 7:05 ET MSG, FSFL
Let’s face it, neither of these teams are any good, however, Orlando being bumped from a pick to -2 is largely based on a lack of faith in New York after game with Golden State. From scheduling perspective, nothing much to be gained, as both are playing third contest in four days and the second in a back-to-back situation. My original inclination was to consider the Magic, but that is uncomfortable idea because they are 11-20 and 10-20-1 ATS at home this season and 2-11 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3. A modest nod towards the Knicks who are 8-1 ATS in road games off a home loss this campaign.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Orlando
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean New York
NBA – (503) MIAMI at (504) CLEVELAND 7:05 ET SUN, FSOH
In spite of Cleveland’s recent woes, they have attracted both sharp and public support and have been taken from -7.5 to -9 over Miami. The Cavs has lost three of five (1-4 ATS) and while the Heat are not as hot as they were doing incredible winning streak, they are still 5-4 SU and ATS since. Still this is about pride and with Cleveland having lost at Miami by 28 on Saturday, we know the old adage – Play back is a bitch – and the Cavaliers are 14-3 ATS in home games revenging a road loss of 10 points or more, winning by 15 PPG.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
CBB – (547) E.TENN. STATE vs. (548) UNC-GREENSBORO 7:00 ET ESPN2
Top-seeded UNC- Greensboro is actually an underdog to #3 East Tennessee State in the Southern Conference Final and they have been drawing support, dropped from +6.5 to +5. Greensboro won both regular season encounters as the underdog, by winning the three-point battle by a combined 21-8, a difference of 39 points. I can see East Tennessee State winning, but I’ll still grab the points in this one.
Betting Trend – 59% backing East Tennessee State
Doug’s VPID Take - UNC-Greensboro covers
CBB – (549) SIENA vs. (550) IONA 9:00 ET ESPN2
Though it does not happen every year, it sure seems like Siena or Iona are always in the MEAC tourney finals. Yesterday they took down the top two seeds and tonight’s winner advances to Big Dance. Sportsbooks have been lowering this total from the start, which opened at 155.5 and is now sitting a 151.5. The two teams split the total this season, however, in meeting in this event the previous two years, the UNDER was 2-0. Neither squad is as dynamic offensively as prior clubs and the Gaels are 7-0 UNDER in tournament championship games.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 51-58 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 25-33-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 76-88-1 ATS