In today’s line moves we have a strong order of American League games, because, that is where all the betting action was early on. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (163-130, 55.5% of late, including 13-6 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (971) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (972) DETROIT 7:10 ET CSN-D, FSD
With current six-game winning streak, Detroit has brought themselves back into the AL Central conversation and is nipping at the heels of those ahead of them for the wild card chase. The Tigers made no splashy moves at trade deadline, believing that have enough bats and with young pitchers coming through, they can make a charge. Those betting baseball even like there chances tonight with Anibal Sanchez (5-11, 6.56 ERA) pitching, despite his wretched season. Detroit has risen from -135 to -150 or higher depending on the sportsbook against rival White Sox and James Shields (5-12, 4.68). Sanchez is definite concern, but offenses are going in different directions in their past seven outs (Sox 3.0 RPG vs. Tigers 7.0 RPG) and Detroit bullpen is superior in home/road dichotomy ERA (3.16 vs. 5.11).
Betting Trend – 85% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
MLB – (973) TORONTO at (974) HOUSTON 8:10 ET RSN, RTSW
One look at the two starting pitchers and Houston took off like a rocket from -140 to -160. Lance McCullers (6-4, 3.18) has a 1.40 ERA in his past three starts, while Toronto R.A. Dickey (7-12, 4.66) has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. Presently for Dickey, R.A. stands for – runs allowed – with a 10.43 ERA in past trio of starts and this has been going on for awhile with 4.96 ERA in last 13 appearances (11 starts). With the Blue Jays 1-14 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 the last two seasons, Houston is the play.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
MLB – (975) OAKLAND at (976) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET CSN-CA, FSW
Nothing like a good old fashion battle for last place. What this lacks in compelling baseball it makes for in hatred between these rivals. Though the records of Sean Manaea (3-5, 4.57) and Matt Shoemaker (5-11, 4.17) will not bring to mind Clayton Kershaw, both hurlers have ERA’s under 3 in last three starts and this has sent the total from 8 to 7.5. I might have been to agree outright with this line move, but these two rank 2nd (Angels) and 5th (A’s) in blown saves this season, making me skittish.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (977) BOSTON at (978) SEATTLE 10:10 ET NESN, RTNW
At first the total did not change, but the juice did in this AL affair. This conflict opened with total at OVER 8, at -120. When I first saw this the sportsbooks position had changed to UNDER 8, now at -125. By the time I started to write about about this game, the total had moved to 7.5, with disappointing David Price (9-7, 4.26) facing Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 4.26). The Seattle lefty returns to the rotation because of deadline trades the Mariners made. Though the Boston offense has been off on this road trip, they still average 5.0 RPG against left-handers and it is not like LeBlanc is likely to hang many blanks on the scoreboard for Boston. The BoSox end 8-0 UNDER road streak tonight, as it is discovered Price is 22-7 OVER in away games versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season for his career.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 140-134-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 123-104-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 263-239-2