In this weekend edition of line moves we will take a hard look at Friday baseball action and add in Sunday’s NFL Hall of Fame contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (173-132, 56.7% of late, including 23-9 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
MLB – (907) MIAMI at (908) COLORADO 8:40 ET FSFL, RTRM
Though Miami is having to once again turn to David Phelps (5-5, 2.65 ERA) as a starting pitcher, with Colorado losing every day players Trevor Story (for the season) and probably Daniel Descalso (probably tonight), the Marlins have been flipped from +110 to -110 favorites. Also working against the Rockies is Jorge De La Rosa (7-7, 5.51) with a 6.91 ERA at Coors Field. Miami has been whipping left-handed starters with 17-7 record, but is only 6-12 as a -110 or higher road favorite.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Colorado
MLB – (913) CLEVELAND at (914) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET STO, YES
With the Indians Josh Tomlin (11-3, 3.43) sporting a 2.75 road ERA and Michael Pineda (5-10, 5.13) having a 2.84 ERA in his past three trips to the bump, the total has slid from 8.5 to 8. If you prefer the lower number, this can cause real consternation with Pineda’s up and down tendencies and Cleveland at 11-3 OVER after scoring eight runs or more this season. However, New York and their right-hander are 7-0 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record this season and 11-2 UNDER at home with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (925) N.Y. METS at (926) DETROIT 7:10 ET SNY, FSD
First class pitching matchup in this interleague affair with two teams fighting to better positions to make the playoffs. Noah Syndergaard (9-5, 2.48) will be seeking his first win in five starts, facing Detroit’s Justin Verlander (11-6, 3.54). The Tigers has come down from -135 to -120 home favorites, yet appear in a favorable position with a 29-12 record as a favorite of -110 or higher this and the Mets 8-16 after allowing one run or less this season.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
MLB – (929) BOSTON at (930) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET NESN, SNLA
Boston knuckleballer Steven Wright (12-5, 3.20) gets the nod for the Red Sox and makes his first start at Dodger Stadium. Wright has the same name of extra dry comedienne, but to BoSox nation nothing funny about their team rising from +100 underdogs to +120 or higher at sportsbooks. Scott Kazmir (9-4, 4.41) toes the rubber for Los Angeles and he is 9-9 with a 4.16 lifetime ERA versus Boston. Let’s give a modest vote of confidence to the home team with the Red Sox 12-13 against lefty starters this season and 17-35 after scoring four runs or less in four straight games the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Los Angeles
NFLX – Sunday – (241) GREEN BAY vs. (242) INDIANAPOLIS 8:00 ET ESPN (side and total)
With the word Green Bay is likely to use rookie quarterbacks Joe Callahan and Marquise Williams, this exhibition encounter has gone from a Pick to the Packers at +3 and total lowered from 36 to 34.5. Colts coach Chuck Pagano said Monday that he plans to play quarterback Andrew Luck and the rest of his healthy players, though he hasn’t said how long his starters will play. Personally I would pass, but offer very small leans on the Colts and Under for the reasons just noted.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Indianapolis and 64% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Slight lean Indianapolis and Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 144-137-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 127-106-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 269-246-2