NCAA TOURNAMENT ROUND UP

March 16, 2016

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com …..The 2016 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent trend results that have occurred in Round One and Round Two games. Note: I consider the First Four play-in games as qualifying contests, with games thereafter starting with Round One.

Here are observations gleaned from the 2016 PLAYBOOK NCAA Tournament guide. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise. In addition, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
PLANTING THE SEED

• No. 1 seeds are 100-0 SU and 54-45-1 ATS vs. No. 16 seeds, including 12-4 ATS if 3-0 SUATS last three games (North Carolina).

• No. 2 seeds are 93-7 SU and 43-53-4 ATS vs. No. 15 seeds, including 4-13-2 ATS when both teams are off a win (Michigan State).

• No. 3 seeds are 86-14 SU and 51-47-2 ATS vs. No. 14 seeds, including 36-1 SU & 27-9-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss (none).

• No. 4 seeds are 80-20 SU and 54-44-2 ATS vs. No. 13 seeds, including 37-20 ATS as favorites of less than 10 points (California and Iowa State).

• No. 5 seeds are 63-37 SU and 46-52-1 ATS vs. No. 12 seeds, including 15-13 SU and 9-17-2 ATS the last seven years (Baylor, Indiana, Maryland and Purdue). FYI: last year was only the third time since 1988 that a No. 12 seed failed to beat a No. 5 seed.

• No. 6 seeds are 67-33 SU and 53-45-2 ATS vs. No. 11 seeds, including 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS off a loss of 13 or more points (Arizona, Notre Dame and Texas).

• No. 7 seeds are 58-42 SU and 54-45-1 ATS vs. No. 10 seeds, including 3-7 SU and ATS 2-8 ATS versus a No. 10 seed that is off back-to-back SU losses (Dayton).

• No. 8 seeds are 52-48 SU and 49-49-2 ATS vs. No. 9 seeds, including 7-2 SU ad 8-1 ATS versus an opponent off BB losses (none).

NCAA 1ST ROUND NOTES 

Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round:
ACC: 5-8-1, A-10: 4-1, Big 10: 3-1-1, Big 12: 1-5, Big East: 6-0, Big West: 2-8, Colonial: 8-4-2, CUSA: 5-8, Horizon: 1-3, MAC: 0-3, Missouri Valley: 5-1-1, Mtn West: 0-3, Pac-12: 8-2, Sun Belt: 3-0, SEC: 3-5, West Coast: 1-3.

Best team records (SU) in this round:

North Carolina 13-0; Maryland 11-0; Kansas 9-0; Gonzaga 7-0; Syracuse 6-0; Arizona & Kentucky 5-0; Butler & Michigan St 4-0; Purdue 14-1; Wisconsin 8-1; Pittsburgh 7-1.

Worst team records (SU) in this round:

Hawaii 0-3.

Best team ATS records in this round:

Butler & Purdue 4-0; Dayton & Oregon 3-0; Michigan St 3-0-1; Tulsa 8-1; VCU & Xavier 7-1; Miami Fla, Michigan, No Iowa, Syracuse & Texas A&M 5-1; Indiana 6-2.

Worst team ATS records in this round:

Notre Dame & Texas 0-5; St. Joseph’s 0-4; Cincinnati & Oklahoma 0-3; Temple 1-5.

Best conference ATS records in this round:

Sun Belt: 4-0, Ivy: 3-0, Colonial: 5-1, Missouri Valley: 4-1, Pac-12: 10-3 as dogs, Big Ten: 20-8.

Worst conference ATS records in this round:

Atlantic 10: 1-4, Big West: 1-4, Big 12: 5-14, CUSA: 3-7.
NCAA 2ND ROUND NOTES
• #1 Seeds are 2-14 off 3+ SUATS wins
• #3 Seed favs > 2 pts are 17-6 vs opp off SU dog win
• #5 Seed dogs are 0-6 L5Y
• #6 Seed dogs 3 > pts are 3-7-1 since 2006
• #7 Seed dogs of 3 > pts are 3-16 vs opp off BB SU wins
• #8 Seed dogs 14 > pts are 6-1 since 1997
• #9 Seed dogs off a SU dog win are 8-17
• #10 Seed or worse favs are 15-4
• #13 or worse Seeds are 7-34 SU & 11-29-1
Best 2016 Tourney Team SU records in this round:
Michigan St 7-0; Kentucky & Xavier 5-0; Wisconsin 4-0; Baylor 3-0; Duke 14-1; Arizona 9-1.
Worst 2016 Tourney Team SU records in this round:
Maryland 0-5; California 0-4; Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M & Villanova 0-3; Cincinnati 1-5.
Best 2016 Tourney Team ATS records in this round:
Arizona & Xavier 7-0; UConn, Baylor, Michigan, Tulsa & Wisconsin 3-0; West Virginia 6-1; Kentucky & Oregon 4-1; VCU & Wichita St 3-1.
Worst 2016 Tourney Team ATS records in this round:
Pittsburgh 0-7; Maryland 0-5; Notre Dame & Villanova 0-3; Indiana 1-6; Texas & Virginia 1-4; Kansas 1-3
Best Conference ATS records in this round:
Pac-12: 9-0 L3Y, SEC: 10-2 as favs, CUSA: 4-1 as favs, Big East: 7-2 as favs 8 > pts, Big 12: 23-8 as favs.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round:
CUSA: 0-5 as dogs, Big West: 0-4, Missouri Valley: 0-4 favs > 1 pt, Mtn West: 0-3 as dogs, ACC: 5-17 as favs < 9 pts.

And as my good doctor friends like to say, if this is not enough to get your blood flowing then it’s time to visit a cardiologist.

I’ll return next week with a look at the NCAA Sweet 16 and Elite 8 round action. Enjoy the games.

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