To the best of knowledge, no games will be cancelled due to gooey rubber substance on field, though weather could still be a factor. Regardless, here are today’s biggest line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (175-133, 56.8% of late, including 25-10 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (903) SAN FRANCISCO at (904) MIAMI 7:10 ET CSN-BA, FSFL
After last night’s unexpected high-scoring contest which last 14 innings, those betting baseball are jumping in and thinking at least in part it could be more of the same. Sportsbooks have in turn pushed the total from 8 to 8.5, not convinced Matt Moore (7-7, 4.04 ERA) or Tom Koehler (8-8, 4.05) have enough answers to solve the opposing lineups. Have to agree and find home teams with an average bullpen, whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season, that has a WHIP over 1.75 in the last 15 games, are 40-14 OVER since 2014.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (905) ARIZONA at (906) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET FSAZ, SNY
Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.62) returns for Arizona from the DL, but not enough believe this will change the Diamondbacks fortunes tonight. The Snakes has slithers from +100 underdogs to +125 or higher in the Big Apple. Though the Mets are only 4-8 in their last dozen, backed with an offense at a mere 3.7 runs per contest, with Greinke on a pitch count and the D-Backs having the worst bullpen ERA in the senior circuit at 5.18, a strong case can be made against club that is 16-44 versus NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs a game on the season the last two seasons. Still a little hesitant with Arizona 9-1 away against NL teams scoring 3.8 or less RPG this season.
Betting Trend – 96% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean New York
MLB – (907) ATLANTA at (908) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET FSSO, FSWI
After being one of the worst offenses in baseball all season, Atlanta is swinging the bats like the Rockies at Coors Field, tallying 5.6 RPG in their last seven outings. Five of those have resulted in Braves wins and in turn the total has been pumped up like Barry Bonds hat size back in his later playing days (when taking natural supplements and lifting weights – wink wink), from 9 to 9.5. Wily Peralta (4-7, 6.68) is back for Milwaukee after nearly two months in Triple-A because of ineffectiveness, in which he was 7-0 OVER at Miller Park. Tyrell Jenkins (1-2, 4.33) will make his sixth start of the 2016 campaign and has allowed one earned run in last 12 innings covering two starts. Another close call, but with two tired bullpens, a lean with a higher total.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Over
MLB – (917) HOUSTON at (918) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET RTSW, FSNO (side and total)
After making massive run to get back into AL West picture, Houston has dropped nine of 11, including last night in the Twin Cities 3-1. Their offense has gone colder than the bottom of the ice cream carton at Baskin-Robbins, at 1.8 RPG in the Astros past 10 outings. Even with starter Mike Fiers 1-2, with a hefty 5.95 road ERA (Houston is 2-6), the ‘Stros have took off from -110 to -130. Minnesota is the hot club, on a 9-3 spin and having high octane offense. The Twins will utilize recently acquired Hector Santiago (10-5, 4.37), who has given up 22 home runs. With these hurlers not exactly mowing down opposing batters, do not like the total dipping from 9 to 8.5. Let’s take the Twinkies lefty who is 11-4 when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season and the larger score, with the home team 18-4 OVER after consecutive wins.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Houston and 73% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins and Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 147-138-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 127-106-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 270-249-2