In spite of a small card in baseball today, we have an ample amount of line moves on the docket. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (161-129, 55.5% of late, including 11-5 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (905) MILWAUKEE at (906) SAN DIEGO 10:10 ET FSWI, FSSD
Milwaukee is hot, San Diego, not so much and the Padres are waving the white flag in giving up on another season. Those betting baseball are taking what they are seeing and running with it in spite of a rather large obstacle in the way. The Brewers have won seven of nine, including weekend sweep of Pittsburgh and have been shoved from +110 underdogs to -110 road favorites. San Diego has lost three of four series and will start newly acquired Jerrod Cosart (0-1, 5.95 ERA) who was never able to stick in Miami rotation. The concern is about the Crew’s Jimmy Nelson (6-9, 3.71) as starter, with a 1-10 record after two or more consecutive wins the last two seasons. (Team’s Record)
Betting Trend – 52% backing San Diego
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Milwaukee
MLB – (907) KANSAS CITY at (908) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET FSKC, SUN
It has been a really rough year for both Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Neither has performed at the level they were expecting. This has been especially true of Chris Archer (5-14, 4.42), who has never recovered from rotten opening day assignment. The one saving grace for the Royals has been Danny Duffy (6-1, 3.32), who has emerged as their most reliable starter. With Duffy in superb form and K.C. averaging a mere 3.2 runs per game on the road this campaign, the total has slipped from 7.5 to 7. Let’s back this move with Duffy 15-2 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 or higher the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (913) BOSTON at (914) SEATTLE 10:10 ET NESN, RTNW
The total in this AL affair has fallen from 9 to 8.5, but the mental aspect has to be considered for both teams. Boston remains on the road after overcoming 3-0 deficit with five runs in the ninth inning in Anaheim for unlikely victory and has to fired up. Seattle held a 6-0 at Wrigley Field and ended up giving it away in 7-6 loss in 12 innings. Besides the stunning defeat, they did not leave Chicago until early this morning and we don’t know what their lineup card will look like and who is available in bullpen if starter James Paxton (3-5, 4.27) has early problems. Probably best to pass, with the slightest of leans on the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Slight lean Under
MLB – (915) N.Y. YANKEES at (916) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET ESPN
The Subway Series resumes and we are not talking a pastrami hot melt. This is a Big Apple battle and the Mets with Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12) will face CC Sabathia (6-8, 3.95) in the opener of four-game set with home and home combination. The Metropolitans started at -110, but have fallen out of favor and are +100 or higher at most sportsbooks. Making a case for either is difficult with the Mets 2-5 on the homestand and the Yankees on a four-game losing streak having been swept by crummy Tampa Bay club. Regardless, a small nod to Sabathia whose pitched better on the road and should tally enough runs against the hittable Verrett.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Mets
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Yankees
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 138-133-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 123-103-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 260-238-2