Meaningful Line Moves and Free Picks for April 4th

April 4, 2017

Another great season of college basketball is in the books and congrats to North Carolina for becoming the champions. (Despite the refs making the game ugly) We move ahead and follow the line moves today in the NBA and baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (49-27 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA - (705) TORONTO at (706) INDIANA  7:05 ET  SN1, FSIN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	Unusual NBA scheduling has these teams playing for the third time in 16 days. Toronto won and covered the first two, but those were in Canada and now they will face-off in the Hoosier State. With this in mind, bettors have shoved Indiana from a Pick to -3. The Pacers have lost four in a row and six of seven (2-5 ATS) to knock themselves out of the playoff picture for the moment and they need a bunch of wins to close the season and return to postseason. The Raptors are attempting to hold on to third seed the Eastern Conference and are 14-6 ATS as road underdogs. Maybe Indiana rises to the occasion, but with terrible offense of late, I will gladly take the purple dinosaurs to cover.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Indiana

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Toronto

NBA – (721) PORTLAND at (722) UTAH  9:05 ET  CSNW, RTRM+

Portland’s offense might be scalding and averaging 115 PPG in their past five contests, but basketball bettors are convinced they will not be blazing hot at Utah and lowered the total from 205 to 201.5. It is a simple matter of the Jazz controlling how the game is played and having The Association’s top scoring defense at 96.6 PPG. Utah figures to do a pretty good job defensively, however, where this total ends up is likely predicated on how many points the Jazz offense comes up with.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

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MLB – (913) SEATTLE at (914) HOUSTON  8:10 ET  RTNW, RTSW

Last night we had a big line move on Houston and it was correct and we have much the same occurring this evening, with the Astros launched from -125 to -160 over Seattle. There are those that believe Lance McCullers will have a breakout campaign, which could be part of why Houston is drawing so much support. Neither McCullers or the Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma looked good in spring, thus nothing definitive to uncover there. The ‘Stros look the right choice having won 14 of 21 at home over the M’s, but just keep in mind McCullers is 1-7 as a home favorite of -150 or more. (Astros record)

Betting Trend – 70% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston

MLB – (915) L.A.A. ANGELS at (916) OAKLAND  10:05 ET  FSW

Though Oakland’s Sean Manaea was 3-3 with a superb 1.05 ERA in his final six starts of 2016 in his rookie campaign, not everyone has faith that will continue into the new season. The A’s were sent out as -115 home favorites but by midday they were +110 underdogs to the Angels. What changed, while the Athletics won the opener last night, they have not played exceptionally well at home against the Halos and they are 3-6 when Matt Shoemaker takes the ball for the team from Anaheim. Let’s look for the Angels to even up the series.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Oakland

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean L.A.A.

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 76-90-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 36-41-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 113-130-4 ATS

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