Juicy Line Moves and Free Picks for April 11

April 11, 2017

With NBA basketball winding down, some line moves are predicated on who is playing, thus we will stick normal games. Not so in baseball and we have three contests with normal line moves. By the way, what is the deal with the Indians blowing up from -210 to -300 against the White Sox! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (60-35 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (509) PHOENIX at (510) SACRAMENTO  10:35 ET  NBA-TV

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		It is a given most Suns game have the potential for an OVER because this young team is offensive-minded and does not care a lot about defense at this point. With a 47-34 OVER record on the season (3rd-best), the total in this contest has jumped from 218 to 221. Sacramento does not have as much offense since Boogie (DeMarcus Cousins) was traded, but with Phoenix 19-3 OVER after scoring 115 points or more, I will lean in that direction.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

MLB – (955) N.Y. METS at (966) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET  SNY, CSP

Matt Harvey had a good first outing and will attempt to duplicate it versus Philadelphia, who he is 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA against. Those are solid numbers, thus, one would have to surmise the reason the total is up from 8 to 8.5 is because of the Phillies Clay Buchholz. The former Red Sox pitcher is either on or not at this point of his career. Buchholz got a no-decision in his first start in the NL and the average total score of an April start for him since 2015 has been 10.7 runs. However, you still have to consider the right-hander is 14-3 UNDER if his team is coming off a loss.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

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MLB – (961) ARIZONA at (962) SAN FRANCISCO  10:15 ET  FSAZ, NBC-BAY

My first thought when I saw a Robbie Ray vs. Jeff Samardjiza matchup having a falling total, I assumed somebody had hacked that website. Turns out the total falling from 8 to 7.5 was true and I also learned Ray is 16-3 UNDER on the road if his team is off a loss the past three years. Without a doubt to me both pitchers have serious flaws, yet taking previous angle and knowing Arizona is 8-0 UNDER in road games versus a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game, time to jump on board.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (967) BALTIMORE at (968) BOSTON  7:10 ET  MASN2, NESN

As per usual, Baltimore is exceeding expectations under Buck Showalter with 4-1 start and the Orioles have flown from +125 to +105 away underdogs in Boston. To date, Drew Pomeranz has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox in performance and being injured. The O’s starter Dylan Bundy tossed seven strong innings in win over Toronto, yet has a 6.73 ERA against Boston in seven appearances (3 starts). Honestly, not much to like either way, but Boston has the flu going through clubhouse and I would rather back the dog in a tight game.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Baltimore

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 79-97-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 42-44-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 120-139-4 ATS

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