We have a whole bunch of line moves to report to you today, covering the NBA, college basketball, Thursday Night Football and other NFL contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (384-306 of late and recent 157-133 mark) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
NBA – (515) MIAMI at (516) DENVER 9:05 ET SUN, ALT
Both these teams have been really struggling, however, basketball bettors are showing enough confidence in Denver at home despite 3-5 and 4-4 ATS record, to build them up two points to -6.5 over Miami. Though the Heat are 5th in scoring defense at 98.2 PPG, they have to be because they only score 96.1 PPG. With the Nuggets at 107 PPG, the feeling appears to be they can dictate tempo and the oddsmakers seem to back that up with total of 206.5. Certainly not a top pick, however, have to consider Miami is 4-13 ATS away when the total is 200 or higher since last year.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Denver
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Denver
NBA – (545) TEMPLE at (546) ST. JOSEPH’S 9:05 ET CBSSN
It is another Big 5 matchup in the City of Brotherly Love and we have had a switch. St. Joseph’s is the home team and opened at -1, but those betting basketball have made rival Temple a -1.5 point favorite. Easy to understand why, with the Owls winning NIT preseason tourney and knocking off two ranked teams, while the Hawks lost two of three at the Paradise Jam. Going the other way, looking for St. Joe’s to come back from bad shooting game (32.9%), already having won last two battles as underdogs and with total at 139, they are 10-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Temple
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Joseph’s covers
NFL – Thursday - (301) DALLAS at (302) MINNESOTA 8:30 ET NBC
With the direction of these two teams, Dallas is up a point to -3.5 in the Twin Cities. For Minnesota to win and cover, they must grab a lead and try and exploit 31st ranked Cowboys secondary. Dallas covers by making the Vikings play catch up, something they have shown not to be very good at. Though Minnesota is 11-3 ATS at home recently, the Cowboys are the better team and are 7-0 ATS in road games off a home win the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Dallas
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Dallas
NFL – (351) DENVER at (352) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
After a quiet start early, the total began to fall in this AFC encounter, down two digits to 41. No question the Denver defense is capable of limiting what Jacksonville can do and despite the 27 points the Broncos tallied on Kansas City, they are not considered an explosive team. The hard part to figure is Jacksonville turnovers, which could make any total a tough call. The Jaguars are 6-0 OVER against teams scoring 24 or more points.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Under
NFL – (359) DETROIT at (360) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX
Though Detroit is in first place and there is clamoring for Matthew Stafford to be given MVP consideration, the Lions have been lifted from +4 to +6 at New Orleans. How Drew Brees and Saints play at home is being given strong consideration and Detroit is 24th in yards per pass attempt. With a high total, just remember the Lions are 6-0 ATS when the total is 49.5 or higher.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Detroit
NFL – (363) LOS ANGELES at (364) NEW ENGLAND 1:00 ET FOX
The total in this nonconference clash is tumbling from 46 to 44.5. Rookie Jared Goff showed more aplomb last week in defeat, but trying to read keys against New England’s defense is quite different. Plus, the Los Angeles defense was totally embarrassed last week and whatever is wrong with Tom Brady’s knee has him not driving throws, which all could make for lower score.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
NFL – (373) N.Y. GIANTS at (374) PITTSBURGH 4:25 ET FOX
The wagering public is not all the impressed with the New York Giants and still sees Pittsburgh as an AFC threat and moved the Steelers from -4.5 to -6. While the Giants have not faced the best the NFL has to offer in winning six straight, Pittsburgh ended four-game losing streak against the Browns and Colts, without Andrew Luck. G-Men are 6-0 ATS versus the AFC.
Betting Trend – 52% backing New York
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 283-267-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 178-151-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 481-447-5