Important Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 5th

January 5, 2017

Time to hoop it up for line moves with five games this Thursday night. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (68-58 since 12/01/16) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!

NBA – (703) UTAH at (704) TORONTO 7:35 ET  RTRM+, SN1 (side and total)

Toronto is back home from a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) road trip and is a sinking home favorite against Utah, who is playing the third contest of their five-game sojourn. The Raptors opened at -6.5 and are down two points as teams off long road trips with a day or less between games are typically below average bets and the Jazz are 11-7 SU and ATS in previous visits north of the border. With the difference in styles of play, the total going from 203 to 199.5 supports that thinking. However, my guess is Toronto comes to play after awful loss at San Antonio.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Toronto and 92% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Toronto and Over

NBA – (711) PHOENIX at (712) DALLAS 8:35 ET FSAX, FSSW

After a horrendous start, Dallas has won four of seven (5-2 ATS). With Phoenix on a six-game road losing streak (1-5 ATS), the Mavericks have been pushed from -4 to -6. If you are making NBA picks, not easy to back Dallas, who is 29th in field goal defense, yet it will make you squirm in your seat thinking about betting the Suns who are on 0-10 ATS January road run.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Dallas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Dallas

CBB – (717) CONNECTICUT at (718) MEMPHIS 7:00 ET  ESPN2

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Connecticut has ability, but is 5-8 and even worse for our purposes, 2-8 ATS, because they cannot shoot. You can look at the Huskies field goal and free throw shooting and realize they stink, but an even more telling number is – effective field goal percentage – were they rank #302 in the country. Because Memphis can shoot (47.2%) and play defense (40.7%), the Tigers have climbed from -6 to -8.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Memphis

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Memphis

CBB – (757) PACIFIC at (758) SAN DIEGO 10:00 ET  CampusInsiders.com

Looked to try and find an injury for San Diego to make sense as to why they would tumble from -3 to a Pick against Pacific, but could not find one. Pacific is 0-6 SU and ATS on the road this season and has not beat the oddsmakers since Dec .1st (seven lined games). The Toreros just lost two games as conference road underdogs, however, are on 6-0 ATS ride. Unless an injury news breaks, have to like the home team.

Betting Trend – 73% backing San Diego

Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego covers

CBB – (771) STANFORD at (772) USC 11:00 ET  PAC-12N

Though USC just lost their first game of the season at Oregon last weekend, they lack the trust of those betting basketball and are down two digits to -7 against Stanford. The Trojans have not covered any of their past six encounters, playing unfocused basketball, despite 14-1 record. Putting your money on the Cardinal is highly risky also, because shooting has been quite volatile in last four contests (two over 52% and two under 34%) and they are playing matador defense, with opposing teams draining better than 53 percent. With Stanford 2-9 ATS as road underdog and losing by more than 15 points in those games, USC gets the nod.

Betting Trend – 86% backing USC

Doug’s VPID Take - USC covers

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 46-30 (since 12/01/16)

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 23-17 (since 12/01/16)

Line Movement Direction Record – 68-58 (since 12/01/16)

Leave a Comment